Khamenei Gone? Polymarket Hits 91.6% | Daily Market Pulse

Netanyahu’s claiming “growing signs” that Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is “gone” after coordinated US-Israeli strikes, and prediction markets are having an absolute moment. The biggest market on Polymarket right now—$44 million in total volume with $11.5 million traded just today—is asking whether Khamenei’s out as Supreme Leader by end of day February 28. It’s sitting at 91.6¢.

That’s not a typo. Traders are pricing in better than 9-in-10 odds that Khamenei’s already done, with literally hours left until market resolution. This is either the most confident call in geopolitical prediction market history or about to be one of the most spectacular mispricings ever. The March 31st version of this market is at 93.2¢ with another $30 million traded, meaning the market thinks if he’s not out today, he’s almost certainly out within the month.

The wild part? Reuters just published that the CIA assessed Khamenei could be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed. The Guardian reports Iran launching reprisal attacks on Israel and US air bases. This isn’t theoretical anymore—it’s happening in real time while these markets trade. You can follow along and trade on Polymarket if you’ve got the stomach for markets moving on breaking news.

Iran Regime Change: The Full Spectrum

The 92¢ price on Khamenei being out is just one piece of a broader story traders are telling. The “Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?” market sits at 41¢ on $9.8 million in volume, with $2.1 million traded today alone. That’s a massive gap—traders are nearly certain Khamenei’s gone but split down the middle on whether the entire regime collapses.

That spread is fascinating. It suggests markets see leadership transition as almost inevitable but aren’t convinced it leads to systemic collapse. Maybe the IRGC consolidates control. Maybe there’s internal succession without revolution. The 41% on full regime change is high enough to be taken seriously but low enough that traders think continuity is more likely than chaos.

There’s also a $1.4 million market asking if the US or Israel struck Iran first, which seems almost quaint at this point given that strikes have already happened. It’s at 41¢, meaning traders are genuinely split on who initiated. That’s either a definitional debate about what counts as “first” or reflects genuine uncertainty about the sequence of events when everything’s happening simultaneously.

Fed Meeting: The Other Thing Happening This Month

While geopolitical markets dominate volume, there’s $23 million sitting in a market about whether the Fed holds rates steady at their March meeting. It’s at 94.8¢, essentially settled—no one expects a move. This matters because of the other news today: wholesale prices came in hotter than expected, up 0.5% from December and 2.9% year-over-year.

That inflation print would normally move rate markets. Instead, it’s a footnote. The Fed market barely budged on $1.5 million in trading today, suggesting traders either don’t think one hot print changes anything or believe the Fed’s locked into their current stance regardless. Given how prediction markets price in new information, this stability is noteworthy—it means the market already expected this level of inflation or considers it non-actionable.

The Judy Shelton Fed chair nomination market is more interesting despite low recent volume ($1.2 million today). At 5.3¢ on over $100 million lifetime volume, it’s basically dead but still trading. That’s $1.2 million in daily volume on what’s essentially a settled question. Either a small group of traders knows something or people are slowly exiting positions on a market that should’ve been resolved in their heads weeks ago.

The Absurd Stuff That’s Also Trading

There’s $11.7 million lifetime volume in a market asking if the US confirms aliens exist before 2027. It’s at 17.5¢ with $750k traded today. In the middle of actual military conflict and regime change speculation, three-quarters of a million dollars moved through an aliens market on a Saturday. That’s either the most optimistic assessment of government transparency ever or a remarkable hedging strategy I don’t understand.

For context, that’s more volume than moved through some of the secondary Iran strike timing markets. The prediction market ecosystem has always had this tension between serious geopolitical forecasting and speculative entertainment, but watching substantial money flow into aliens while real wars unfold is a specific kind of surreal.

What to Watch

The Khamenei markets resolve tonight, which means we’ll know within hours if that 92¢ price was justified or if this becomes a legendary misread. If he’s confirmed out, the regime change market becomes the new focal point—does leadership transition lead to stability or collapse? Watch for volume shifts into that 41¢ market if confirmation comes.

On the Fed side, next week brings more economic data before the March meeting. If wholesale inflation stays hot, that 95¢ “no change” price might finally start moving, though it’ll take a lot to shake the consensus. And Iran’s promised “no leniency” in reprisal attacks means this isn’t over—expect continued action in strike timing and escalation markets regardless of how today’s Khamenei market resolves.