Goldman Warns $100 Oil as Hormuz Shuts Down
Oil hit $83/barrel as Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic drops 83%. Goldman says $100 is coming. Wood Mackenzie warns $150. Here's what the money thinks.
Brent crude hit $83.53 today. That’s up 2.6% in a single session, and it’s not stopping. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed from 24 ships per day to just 4—an 83% drop. Goldman Sachs says if this continues for five more weeks, $100 oil is inevitable. Wood Mackenzie’s doomsday scenario puts it at $150.
The prediction market on Polymarket prices $100 oil by March 31 at 25%, up 8 points this week. That’s 1-in-4 odds of triple-digit crude within the month. Whether you drive a car, buy groceries, or heat your home, this market affects you directly.
The Numbers That Should Scare You
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t partially disrupted. It’s effectively shut:
- Tanker transits: 4/day (normal: 24/day)
- Oil flow disrupted: ~17 million barrels/day not moving
- Global oil supply at risk: 20%
- Global LNG at risk: 20%
- Each week closed: 1.5 million metric tons of LNG removed from the market
This isn’t a theoretical risk anymore. The Hormuz closure market on Polymarket sits at 74% by March 31 for a reason—the closure is already happening in practice. The question is whether it gets worse and whether it’s formally declared.
What the Analysts Are Saying
Three major forecasts on where oil goes from here:
| Analyst | Scenario | Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Disruption persists 5+ weeks | $100/barrel |
| Wood Mackenzie | Strait remains fully shut | $125-150/barrel |
| Goldman Sachs | Base case (normalization) | $76 Q2, $66 Q4 |
The Goldman base case is important context. Their central forecast still assumes the Strait reopens relatively quickly—Brent at $76 in Q2, falling to $66 by Q4. That’s the “this blows over” scenario. The $100 number is their “this doesn’t blow over” scenario, and the probability of that scenario keeps rising as ceasefire odds stay low.
Wood Mackenzie’s $150 call is the extreme case—sustained full closure with no alternative supply routes compensating. At $150 oil, gas hits $6-8/gallon, airlines cut routes, and recession becomes almost certain. The Polymarket recession contract at 26-31% would need to reprice dramatically.
Tariffs Are Making It Worse
Oil isn’t just a war story right now. The 25% tariffs that took effect today include a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. Canada is the largest source of US oil imports, supplying roughly 4 million barrels per day.
The double hit:
- Hormuz disruption cuts 20% of global supply from the Middle East
- Canadian energy tariffs add 10% costs to the largest US import source
- No easy substitution — you can’t replace Hormuz oil with Canadian oil if Canadian oil just got 10% more expensive
This is the scenario where $100 oil stops being a Wall Street warning and starts showing up at the gas pump. Every $10/barrel increase adds roughly $0.25/gallon at the pump. From $70 to $100 means an extra $0.75 per gallon—roughly $35/month for the average American driver.
Trump’s Counter-Move
The administration isn’t sitting still. Trump has offered two things to restart Hormuz traffic:
- Tanker insurance guarantees — the government will backstop insurance for commercial vessels transiting the strait
- Military escorts — US Navy ships will convoy commercial tankers through the chokepoint
This is actually bullish for oil prices coming back down. If commercial shipping resumes under military escort, the effective closure ends even without a ceasefire. Watch for tanker transit numbers ticking back up from 4/day—that’s the leading indicator that the oil shock fades.
But here’s the risk: military escorts mean US warships in close proximity to Iranian coastal defenses in a 21-mile-wide channel during an active war. One incident—a mine, a missile, a misidentification—could escalate the naval conflict and shut the strait completely. The market is pricing this tension between “escorts reopen the strait” and “escorts trigger a worse crisis.”
The Prediction Market View
Here’s how the money is positioned across oil-related markets:
| Market | Odds | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Oil $100 by March 31 | 25% | Up 8 pts |
| Oil $80 by March 31 | 67% | Up 15 pts |
| Hormuz closed by March 31 | 74% | Up 18 pts |
| Ceasefire by March 31 | 37% | Down 5 pts |
| Recession by end of 2026 | 26-31% | Up 3 pts |
The pattern is clear: oil up, Hormuz closure up, ceasefire down, recession up. Everything is moving in the “this gets worse” direction. The $80 market at 67% is nearly a certainty bet—oil already touched $83 today before pulling back. The $100 market at 25% is the one traders are actively debating.
What Moves Oil This Week
- Hormuz tanker counts — daily transit data is the single best predictor. Below 4/day = $100 becomes likely. Above 10/day = crisis easing.
- Military escort announcement — a formal convoy program could reverse the supply shock
- Iranian naval activity — any attack on a commercial vessel sends oil spiking 5-10% instantly
- OPEC response — Saudi Arabia and UAE have spare capacity. If they announce production increases, it offsets some of the Hormuz loss.
- US Strategic Petroleum Reserve — any release announcement is a short-term bearish signal for oil
If you’re trading the oil market through prediction contracts, the $100 strike at 25¢ is the highest-conviction play available right now. You’re essentially betting on whether the war lasts another 5 weeks with the strait closed. Given ceasefire odds at 61% by March 31, there’s a reasonable chance the war ends and oil reverses—making the “no” side of the $100 contract attractive at 75¢ if you think peace comes soon. Track oil and energy markets on Polymarket or compare odds across platforms on our odds page.