Polymarket Guide: Inside the Crypto Platform Where Traders Called the 2024 Election

Polymarket processed more trading volume than every other prediction market combined during the 2024 US election cycle. That is not an exaggeration — individual markets on the platform saw hundreds of millions of dollars in total volume, and it cemented Polymarket as the dominant crypto-native prediction market in the world. If you are interested in trading event contracts and you want access to the deepest liquidity available, Polymarket is a platform you need to understand.

This guide covers everything you need to go from zero to placing your first trade: how the platform works, how to get funds on it, how to navigate markets, and — most importantly — how to think about finding edge. We trade prediction markets every day across multiple platforms, and we will share practical insights that go beyond what the official docs tell you.

What Is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a prediction market exchange where you buy and sell shares in the outcome of real-world events. Each market poses a binary question — “Will the Fed cut rates in March 2026?” or “Will Bitcoin be above $100,000 on March 31?” — and the shares are priced between $0.00 and $1.00. If you buy a “Yes” share at $0.40 and the event occurs, that share settles at $1.00 and you pocket $0.60 per share in profit. If the event does not occur, your share settles at $0.00 and you lose your $0.40 stake.

The share price reflects the market’s consensus probability for the event. A “Yes” share priced at $0.72 implies the market thinks there is a 72% chance the event will happen. If you believe the true probability is higher or lower than what the market implies, you have a potential edge.

Built on Polygon

Polymarket is built on the Polygon blockchain, an Ethereum Layer 2 scaling network. All trades settle on-chain using USDC (a US dollar stablecoin) as the settlement currency. In practice, this means that the platform inherits the speed and low transaction costs of Polygon — gas fees are fractions of a penny — while giving you the transparency that comes with blockchain settlement.

You do not need to be a crypto expert to use Polymarket, but you do need a basic understanding of crypto wallets and USDC. If you have never used a crypto wallet before, do not worry — we will walk through the setup process step by step.

How It Differs from Regulated Platforms

It is important to be upfront about this: Polymarket is not regulated by the CFTC or any US financial regulator. Unlike Kalshi, which operates as a designated contract market under CFTC oversight with segregated customer funds, Polymarket is a crypto-native platform without that regulatory framework. For a detailed side-by-side breakdown, see our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison.

This has real implications. There is no government-backed deposit insurance, dispute resolution is handled by the platform rather than a regulator, and Polymarket has faced regulatory scrutiny before — in 2022, it settled with the CFTC and blocked US-based users from its interface. As of 2026, US users face restrictions, and you should understand the legal landscape in your jurisdiction before trading.

The tradeoff is access: Polymarket is available globally without mandatory KYC for basic trading, it offers the deepest liquidity of any prediction market, and the crypto-native infrastructure means deposits and withdrawals are fast and permissionless.

How to Sign Up

Getting started on Polymarket is significantly different from signing up for a traditional brokerage or even a regulated prediction market like Kalshi. There is no lengthy application or identity verification for basic access.

1. Go to polymarket.com and click “Sign Up” or “Log In.”
2. Connect a wallet or create an account. Polymarket supports email-based login (which creates a custodial wallet for you), or you can connect an existing crypto wallet like MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, or WalletConnect-compatible wallets.
3. If you use email login, Polymarket handles wallet creation behind the scenes. This is the easiest path for beginners — you get a wallet without needing to manage private keys or install browser extensions.
4. If you connect an external wallet, make sure it is configured for the Polygon network. Most modern wallets handle this automatically, but if your wallet defaults to Ethereum mainnet, you may need to add Polygon manually.

That is it. No Social Security number, no photo ID, no waiting for approval. You can browse markets immediately after creating your account.

Depositing USDC

This is the step that trips up most newcomers. Polymarket uses USDC on the Polygon network as its native currency. You cannot deposit dollars directly from a bank account like you would on Kalshi or PredictIt. Here are your options:

Option 1: Deposit Directly via Polymarket’s On-Ramp

Polymarket has integrated third-party on-ramp providers (like MoonPay or similar services) that let you buy USDC with a credit card, debit card, or bank transfer directly within the platform. This is the simplest route for beginners. You will pay a small fee for the conversion (typically 1-3%), but you skip the complexity of manually bridging funds.

Option 2: Transfer USDC from a Crypto Exchange

If you already have USDC on an exchange like Coinbase, Kraken, or Binance, you can withdraw it directly to your Polymarket wallet address on the Polygon network. The critical detail here is to make sure you select Polygon (MATIC) as the withdrawal network — not Ethereum mainnet. Sending USDC on Ethereum mainnet to a Polygon address will not work as expected, and recovering the funds can be a headache.

Steps:

• Copy your Polymarket deposit address (found in the “Deposit” section of the platform).
• Go to your crypto exchange and initiate a USDC withdrawal.
• Paste the Polymarket deposit address and select Polygon as the network.
• Confirm the transaction. It should arrive within a few minutes.

Option 3: Bridge from Ethereum

If you have USDC on Ethereum mainnet, you can use the Polygon Bridge (or a third-party bridge like Hop Protocol or Across) to move it to Polygon. This adds a step and you will pay an Ethereum gas fee for the bridging transaction, so Option 2 is generally simpler if your exchange supports Polygon withdrawals.

How Much to Deposit

There is no minimum deposit on Polymarket. You can start with as little as a few dollars worth of USDC. However, to trade meaningfully and manage a portfolio of positions, $100 to $500 is a reasonable starting range. This gives you enough capital to diversify across multiple markets without being wiped out by a single losing position.

Navigating Markets

Once you have USDC in your account, you will land on the market browse page. Polymarket organizes markets into categories:

• Politics — elections, legislation, government appointments
• Crypto — Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets, ETF approvals, protocol milestones
• Sports — game outcomes, player props, tournament winners
• Pop Culture — entertainment, social media events, celebrity outcomes
• Science & Tech — AI milestones, space launches, technology adoption
• Economics — Fed decisions, inflation data, GDP prints

Each market shows the current “Yes” and “No” prices, the total volume traded, and the number of active traders. Popular markets are surfaced prominently, but do not ignore the less-trafficked markets — that is often where mispricing lives.

Reading the Order Book

Polymarket operates a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB), which means it works like a real exchange rather than an automated market maker (AMM). You can see resting bids and asks, place limit orders at specific prices, and execute market orders against the existing book.

When you click into a market, you will see:

• The current best bid and ask for both “Yes” and “No” shares
• The order book depth showing how many shares are available at each price level
• Recent trade history showing executed trades and their prices

Understanding the order book is essential. If the best ask for “Yes” shares is $0.62 and the best bid is $0.58, the spread is 4 cents. You can either buy immediately at $0.62 (taking liquidity) or place a limit order at, say, $0.59 and wait for someone to sell to you (providing liquidity). Tighter spreads mean lower implicit trading costs. Wider spreads mean the market is less liquid, and you should be more careful about your entry.

Placing Trades

Trading on Polymarket is straightforward once you understand the basics.

Market Orders

Click “Buy” or “Sell” on a market, enter the number of shares you want, and the platform calculates the cost based on current order book prices. A market order fills immediately at the best available prices. For liquid markets with tight spreads, this is fine. For thinner markets, you may experience slippage — your average fill price is worse than the displayed price because your order eats through multiple price levels.

Limit Orders

Limit orders let you specify the exact price you are willing to pay. If you believe “Yes” shares are worth $0.55 but the current ask is $0.60, you can place a limit buy at $0.55 and wait. Your order sits in the book until someone is willing to sell at your price. Limit orders give you better execution but require patience — and they may never fill if the market moves away from your price.

Use limit orders. Seriously. In prediction markets, the difference between a $0.55 entry and a $0.60 entry on the same position is the difference between a profitable trade and a losing one. Discipline on entry prices is one of the single biggest factors separating traders who make money from those who do not.

Selling Before Settlement

You do not have to hold shares until the market resolves. If you buy “Yes” at $0.40 and the market price moves to $0.65 before the event occurs, you can sell your shares for a $0.25 per share profit. This is an important concept: you can take profits or cut losses at any time, as long as there is liquidity in the market.

In fact, actively managing your positions — selling when you have captured most of the expected value rather than waiting for settlement — is often the smarter approach. Markets can move against you even when your original thesis was correct, and locking in gains reduces your exposure to resolution risk.

Fees and Costs

One of Polymarket’s biggest selling points is that there are no explicit trading fees. The platform does not charge a per-trade or per-share commission. Instead, the cost of trading is embedded in the bid-ask spread.

In practice, this means:

• On liquid markets with tight spreads (1-2 cents), your implicit trading cost is very low — comparable to or better than Kalshi’s per-contract fees.
• On illiquid markets with wide spreads (5-10 cents or more), your trading cost is substantially higher because you are crossing a wider spread.

Gas fees on Polygon are negligible — typically less than a fraction of a cent per transaction. You will not notice them.

There are also no withdrawal fees on the platform itself, though you may pay network fees when moving USDC off Polygon to an exchange or another chain.

The Hidden Cost: Spread as Fee

Do not let “no fees” fool you into thinking trading is free. The spread is a real cost, and market makers on Polymarket are compensated through the spread they capture. On a market with a 4-cent spread, a round trip (buying and then selling) costs you roughly 4 cents per share in implicit friction. For smaller positions this is negligible, but for larger trades it adds up. Always check the spread before trading.

Strategies for Beginners

Start with What You Know

The easiest way to find edge on Polymarket is to trade markets where you have genuine informational or analytical advantage. If you follow politics closely, you may spot mispriced election markets before the broader market reacts to new polling data. If you understand crypto fundamentals, you may have better intuition on ETF approval timelines or protocol upgrade milestones.

Do not trade markets you do not understand just because the price looks appealing. A “Yes” share at $0.10 is not automatically a bargain — it is cheap because the market thinks the event is highly unlikely.

Compare with Other Sources

Before placing a trade, check what other forecasting sources say. Look at polling aggregates for political markets, weather forecast models for weather-related events, and expert commentary for economics and policy decisions. If Polymarket prices deviate significantly from well-calibrated external forecasts, that deviation is where your edge might be.

Diversify Across Markets

Do not put your entire bankroll into one position. Prediction markets are inherently uncertain — that is the whole point. Spread your capital across multiple markets with positive expected value, and let the law of large numbers work in your favor over time.

Size Your Positions Using Implied Probability

Think about every trade in terms of your estimated probability versus the market’s implied probability. If you are new to this concept, our guide on event contract pricing and probability covers the math in depth. If the market says 40% and you believe the true probability is 55%, you have a 15-percentage-point edge. The larger the gap between your estimate and the market price, the more confident you can be in sizing up. For small edges (a few percentage points), keep positions small. For large edges, you can be more aggressive — but never bet more than you can afford to lose on a single market.

Track Your Results

Keep a simple spreadsheet of every trade: the market, your entry price, your estimated probability at the time, and the outcome. Over time, this data tells you whether you are actually calibrated or just getting lucky. If your 70% confidence picks are winning 50% of the time, your probability estimates are off and you need to recalibrate.

Risks to Understand

Regulatory Risk

Polymarket has faced regulatory action before and could face it again. If regulators in your jurisdiction decide to crack down on unregulated prediction markets, your access could be cut off with limited notice. Keep this in mind when deciding how much capital to hold on the platform.

Smart Contract Risk

All trades settle through smart contracts on Polygon. While these contracts have been audited and battle-tested with billions of dollars in volume, smart contract risk is never zero. A bug or exploit in the settlement contracts could theoretically put funds at risk. This is an inherent feature of crypto-native platforms.

Resolution Disputes

Markets are resolved by Polymarket based on predefined resolution criteria, often using UMA’s optimistic oracle system. In rare cases, resolution can be disputed, and the process is less transparent and less predictable than the clear, regulator-enforced rules on platforms like Kalshi. Most markets resolve cleanly, but edge cases can be frustrating.

Liquidity Risk

Even on Polymarket, not every market is liquid. If you take a large position in a thin market, you may not be able to exit at a reasonable price when you want to. Always check order book depth before entering a position, and be cautious about sizing up in markets with fewer active traders.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket is the highest-volume prediction market in the world, offering deep liquidity on political, crypto, and current-events markets. If execution quality matters to you, this is the platform to learn.
• You need USDC on Polygon to trade. The easiest path for beginners is using the built-in on-ramp to buy USDC with a card. If you already hold crypto, withdraw USDC to Polygon from your exchange.
• Use limit orders. The CLOB order book rewards patience. Crossing the spread on every trade is an unnecessary cost that erodes your returns over time.
• There are no explicit fees, but the spread is your cost. Trade liquid markets where spreads are tight, and be cautious in thin markets where the implicit cost is high.
• Polymarket is unregulated. That means global access and minimal friction, but it also means no deposit insurance, no CFTC oversight, and real regulatory risk. Do not keep more capital on the platform than you are comfortable losing in a worst-case scenario.
• Edge comes from better probability estimates. Compare market prices to external forecasts, trade in your areas of expertise, diversify across markets, and track your results rigorously.
• Manage your positions actively. Selling before settlement to lock in profits is often smarter than holding through resolution. Take profits when the market has moved in your direction and the remaining upside is thin.

For more approaches to finding edge on any platform, see our prediction market strategies guide. Polymarket is a powerful platform for traders who are comfortable with its crypto-native infrastructure and its unregulated status. The liquidity is real, the markets are diverse and growing, and the trading experience is closer to a real exchange than almost any other prediction market. Get your USDC on Polygon, start small, trade what you know, and scale up as you build a track record.