US-Iran Peace Deal Odds: What Traders Are Betting

There’s over $105 million being bet on when—or if—the United States and Iran will sign a permanent peace deal. And if today’s news is any indication, we’re not getting one anytime soon.

Oil prices just jumped after Trump dismissed Iran’s latest proposal to end the ongoing tensions. That’s the kind of headline that makes traders reassess their positions real quick. The prediction markets are reflecting exactly what you’d expect: near-zero odds for anything happening in the next few weeks, but cautious optimism building toward year’s end.

Let’s dig into what the smart money is saying.

The Odds Breakdown: May Through December

The market data tells a fascinating story about how traders view the timeline for potential peace.

For May 11 (which is basically now), traders are giving it a 0.2% chance. That’s essentially zero—no one’s expecting a breakthrough this week. May 13 sits at 0.8%, and May 15 at 2.6%. These early May dates have collectively seen massive volume though, with over $22 million traded across them.

Here’s where it gets interesting: May 31 jumps to 18.5% odds with over $20 million in total volume. That’s a meaningful probability increase. Traders are saying “not this week, but maybe by month’s end there’s a shot.”

June 30 climbs to 40.5% with nearly $8 million wagered. By December 31? We’re at 69.5% odds. The market’s essentially saying there’s a coin flip’s chance by summer and better-than-even odds by year’s end.

If you want to understand how these percentages translate to actual bet values, check out our guide on implied probability.

Why The Odds Are Where They Are

Trump just shot down Iran’s latest peace proposal, and oil markets are already reacting. That’s not the behavior of two countries about to sign a permanent peace deal in the next two weeks.

The April dates that have already passed? Those show $0 in 24-hour volume because they’re expired. But look at the total volume—over $26 million on April 22 alone. Traders were clearly anticipating something that didn’t materialize.

The pattern here is classic prediction market behavior. Near-term dates get hammered down to near-zero as reality sets in. But longer-dated contracts maintain hope because, well, a lot can happen in six months. Wars end, administrations shift priorities, geopolitical calculations change.

The December contract at 69.5% is particularly telling. That’s saying “we think something happens eventually, just not right now.” It’s the market pricing in diplomatic processes that take months, not days.

The Trading Opportunity (If You See One)

So where’s the edge here? That depends entirely on your read of the geopolitical situation.

If you think Trump’s dismissal of Iran’s proposal signals that tensions will continue escalating, the May 31 contract at 18.5% might be overpriced. You could bet NO and collect when nothing happens by month’s end. The risk/reward math works if you’re confident this drags out longer.

On the flip side, if you believe diplomatic breakthroughs happen suddenly—and that both sides have incentives to make a deal this year—the December contract at 69.5% YES could have value. You’re getting almost 2:1 odds that something happens by year’s end.

The volume data is crucial here. That $8.4 million in 24-hour volume shows active trading, with the heaviest action on May 11 ($2.5M) and May 15 ($2.4M). Money is flowing into near-term contracts, suggesting traders are actively updating their views based on news.

Want to avoid rookie mistakes when placing these bets? Our breakdown of common mistakes in prediction markets is required reading.

Where To Bet These Markets

These US-Iran peace deal markets are available on major prediction platforms. Polymarket typically hosts similar geopolitical contracts with deep liquidity, while Kalshi offers regulated event contracts on political outcomes.

If you’re new to this space, understanding what are prediction markets will help you grasp why these platforms often predict outcomes better than traditional polls or expert forecasts.

What Could Move These Odds Next

Watch for these catalysts that could dramatically shift the probabilities:

Trump administration signals. Any softening of rhetoric or back-channel diplomatic efforts would send the May/June contracts soaring. Conversely, new sanctions or military posturing would crush them.

Iran’s response. If Tehran makes a significant concession or proposal that gains traction, expect volume to spike. The oil price reaction today shows how sensitive markets are to these developments.

Third-party mediation. If countries like China, Russia, or regional Arab states step in with credible peace frameworks, that could accelerate timelines traders currently see stretching to December.

Regional escalation. Any military incidents or proxy conflicts would likely push all near-term dates toward zero and increase skepticism even about December odds.

The $105 million in total volume tells you this isn’t some niche market—serious money is trying to forecast one of the most consequential geopolitical questions of 2025. Whether Trump and Iran’s leadership can overcome decades of hostility remains to be seen. But right now, the smart money says don’t hold your breath for May, keep an eye on summer, and maybe expect something by Christmas.

For more advanced strategies on reading these markets, check out our guide on finding edge as a retail trader.