This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on February 28, 2026
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Odds: 83.2% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Aziz Akhannouch’s Political Tenure: A Market Heavily Favoring Early Exit
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 83.2% | 16.8% | $96K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The market is pricing an 83% probability that Morocco’s Prime Minister will be out of office within roughly 20 months, reflecting significant uncertainty about Akhannouch’s political durability in a fragile coalition government. This matters because Morocco’s stability under its new PM directly affects North African geopolitics, EU migration policy, and investor confidence in the region—making his tenure a legitimate proxy for broader regional political health.
The bull case for his departure rests on Morocco’s structural political instability. Akhannouch’s RNP party won the September 2023 elections but leads a coalition dependent on securing parliamentary majorities for contentious reforms, particularly around subsidy reform and pension restructuring that provoke public backlash. Inflation and unemployment remain elevated, and the coalition’s grip on parliament is thin enough that defections or opposition consolidation could force early elections before 2027. Additionally, Morocco has a history of prime ministerial turnover—Akhannouch himself replaced Najib Mikati, and his predecessor lasted only three years. Street protests over living costs or policy disagreements within the coalition could trigger a confidence vote collapse by late 2026.
The bear case emphasizes Akhannouch’s relative stability compared to predecessors and the costs of early elections. The RNP-led coalition, while fragile, has survived initial budget votes and controls enough coalition members to weather minor defections through 2026. King Mohammed VI’s backing matters substantially in Morocco’s semi-constitutional monarchy, and the King has shown patience with Akhannouch’s technocratic approach. Early elections would be economically disruptive and politically unpredictable—incentivizing all major parties to preserve the status quo through the term’s natural end. Regional elections scheduled for late 2025 could serve as a pressure valve for discontent without toppling the government.
Traders should monitor the 2025 regional elections as a critical inflection point; poor RNP performance there could trigger defections and embolden opposition confidence votes in early 2026. Budget votes in early 2025 and pension reform debates scheduled for spring/summer 2025 will test coalition cohesion. Watch for labor strikes or large protests over subsidy cuts—politically destabilizing events that could prompt the King to intervene with a government reshuffle or early elections. International pressure from France or the EU over migration or economic reforms could also accelerate political realignment.
Related Markets
- Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — 4% YES
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — 12% YES
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 2% YES
Frequently Asked Questions
Does King Mohammed VI’s constitutional power to dissolve parliament make early elections more likely than in a pure parliamentary system?
Yes—Morocco’s monarchy can trigger elections unilaterally if instability deepens, lowering the bar for Akhannouch’s exit compared to purely parliamentary democracies, though the King’s historical preference for continuity moderates this risk.
If the 2025 regional elections show RNP weakness, how quickly could a new PM take office?
Constitutional dissolution and new elections could occur within 3-4 months, meaning a poor regional result in October-November 2025 could produce a new PM by early 2026, well before the market’s December 2026 deadline.
What role does pension reform play in determining if Akhannouch survives to 2027?
Pension reform is the coalition’s most unpopular planned measure; if street protests escalate into sustained civil unrest in 2025-2026, it could trigger a royal intervention to replace the PM rather than risk broader instability.