How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the market's implied probability of an event occurring. A YES price of 75% means traders collectively believe there's a 75% chance the event will happen. You can buy YES (betting it will happen) or NO (betting it won't) and profit if you're correct.

Megaquake by July 31? 15% — Unlikely

Q: What are the current odds for "Megaquake by July 31?"?

As of July 3, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 15%.

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	15.0%	85.0%	$10K	Trade on Polymarket

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — 0% YES
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 2% YES
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? — 97% YES

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for “Megaquake by July 31?”?

As of July 02, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 15.0%.

Where can I trade on this prediction market?

You can trade this market on Polymarket (crypto-based).

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