How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the market's implied probability of an event occurring. A YES price of 75% means traders collectively believe there's a 75% chance the event will happen. You can buy YES (betting it will happen) or NO (betting it won't) and profit if you're correct.

Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? 1.6%

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	1.6%	98.5%	$100K	Trade on Polymarket

Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? — 0% YES
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? — 76% YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? — 97% YES

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for “Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?”?

As of May 16, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 1.6%.

Where can I trade on this prediction market?

You can trade this market on Polymarket (crypto-based).

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