Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

The market has priced in near-certainty that February 2026 will rank among the four hottest Februarys ever recorded, reflecting strong confidence in continued global warming trends amplified by current El Niño-to-La Niña transition patterns.

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	97.2%	2.8%	$98K	Trade on Polymarket

Market Analysis

The bull case for YES (sub-4th ranking) rests on the multi-decade temperature trajectory showing accelerating warmth, with nine of the ten hottest Februarys occurring since 2015. The 2023-2024 El Niño event has elevated baseline ocean temperatures significantly, and even as La Niña conditions potentially develop through late 2025, the residual heat retention typically keeps global averages elevated for 12-18 months afterward. February sits in the Northern Hemisphere winter when polar amplification effects are most pronounced, and Arctic sea ice extent hit record lows in winter 2024, reducing albedo and accelerating heat absorption. The January 2026 temperature anomalies, which will be published by NOAA and NASA in early February, will provide a strong leading indicator of where February is trending.

The bear case for NO (5th place or cooler) requires an unlikely combination of a rapid La Niña intensification and volcanic activity that hasn’t yet occurred. A strong La Niña event would need to be firmly established by December 2025 to sufficiently cool tropical Pacific waters for February 2026. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center issues monthly ENSO forecasts, with the December 2025 update being critical for market participants. Additionally, a significant volcanic eruption injecting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere between now and January 2026 could temporarily suppress global temperatures by 0.2-0.5°C, similar to the Pinatubo effect in 1991. However, no current volcanic systems show signs of imminent major eruptions.

Traders should monitor NOAA’s monthly Global Climate Reports (released mid-month for the previous month), which provide official temperature rankings. The December 2025 report (published mid-January 2026) and January 2026 report (mid-February) will be definitive catalysts. The ENSO forecast updates from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, particularly the December 2025 and January 2026 editions, will signal ocean temperature patterns. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) extended-range temperature models, updated weekly, offer 46-day outlooks that will become increasingly reliable as February approaches.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What temperature datasets determine the official February ranking for this market?

The market will resolve based on the combined NASA GISS, NOAA NCEI, and other major climate monitoring agencies’ rankings. These organizations typically publish their official monthly global temperature analyses 2-3 weeks after month-end, meaning definitive data arrives in mid-March 2026.

How much would ocean temperatures need to cool for February 2026 to fall outside the top 4?

Based on historical data, global ocean surface temperatures would need to drop approximately 0.3-0.4°C from current elevated levels to push February 2026 to 5th place or lower, requiring either a robust La Niña or an unexpected cooling mechanism that reverses 18 months of accumulated heat.

Can regional cold snaps in North America or Europe affect this global temperature ranking?

No—localized winter weather extremes have minimal impact on global monthly averages, which weight oceanic temperatures heavily (covering 71% of Earth’s surface). Even severe regional cold anomalies typically represent less than 5% of the global temperature calculation.

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