Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Odds: 0.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Gideon Sa’ar currently registers as a long-shot candidate for Israel’s premiership with negligible odds, reflecting his limited political base despite holding a ministerial position in Netanyahu’s coalition government. The former Likud member turned New Hope party founder occupies a complicated position in Israeli politics—experienced enough to be credible but lacking the party infrastructure or polling numbers to mount a realistic challenge for the top job by late 2026.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.5% | 99.5% | $999K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case relies on catastrophic political realignment within Israel’s right-wing bloc. If Netanyahu faces legal or health issues forcing his exit before 2026, and if Likud fractures in the succession battle, Sa’ar could position himself as a unity candidate acceptable to both traditional Likud voters and centrist parties. His experience as Interior Minister and previous Education Minister gives him executive credibility, while his 2020 break from Likud—originally framed as principled opposition to Netanyahu—could appeal to voters seeking change without abandoning right-wing policies. A scenario where Israel faces renewed security crises requiring a “consensus” prime minister outside the usual Likud-Labor dynamic represents his narrow path to power.
The bear case is simply electoral mathematics and political reality. Sa’ar’s New Hope party collapsed in recent polls, typically registering under the electoral threshold or barely above it. Current surveys show Likud, National Unity (Gantz), and Yesh Atid (Lapid) dominating the landscape, with Sa’ar struggling for relevance. The next Knesset elections must occur by October 2026 at the latest unless the current coalition collapses earlier, but no major polls show Sa’ar commanding even 10% support, let alone the 25-30% typically needed to form a government as prime minister. His decision to rejoin a Netanyahu-led government in 2024 undermined his original break-from-Bibi brand without gaining him a substantial Likud loyalist following.
Key catalysts include potential early election triggers—coalition instability over judicial reform implementation, budget votes in early 2026, or developments in ongoing war crimes proceedings. Watch for polling trends in Israel’s Channel 12 and Channel 13 monthly surveys, particularly whether Sa’ar’s party crosses the 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu’s corruption trial proceedings and potential Supreme Court rulings on judicial reforms scheduled through 2025 could destabilize the coalition. Any merger negotiations between Sa’ar and other center-right parties like National Unity would signal a more viable path, though Gantz currently has little incentive to elevate a competitor.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Could Sa’ar become prime minister without winning an election outright?
Yes, if no party wins a majority and he emerges as a compromise candidate during coalition negotiations, similar to how Bennett became PM in 2021. However, this requires significant parliamentary strength he currently lacks.
What would need to happen to Netanyahu’s Likud party for Sa’ar’s odds to improve substantially?
Likud would need to either split into competing factions during a succession crisis or suffer such severe electoral losses that Sa’ar could absorb defectors and position himself as the right-wing alternative, requiring polling swings of 15-20 seats.
How does Sa’ar’s current position as minister in Netanyahu’s government affect his chances?
It severely complicates his path by eliminating his differentiation as a Netanyahu alternative while not rebuilding trust with Likud loyalists who view him as a traitor for his 2020 defection, leaving him without a clear constituency.
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Key Dates
- Market Expiry: December 31, 2026 (211 days from now)
- Midpoint Check: September 16, 2026 — reassess position