This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on May 23, 2026
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Odds: 76.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
May 2026 Temperature Record Analysis
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 74.5% | 25.5% | $10K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The market is heavily favoring a record-breaking heat outcome at nearly 3-to-1 odds, reflecting growing consensus that 2026 will likely rank among the warmest years on record given current climate trends and El Niño/La Niña cycles. This matters now because it represents traders’ conviction that global warming acceleration is quasi-inevitable, with implications for climate policy momentum heading into 2026 global negotiations and potential regulatory shifts. The six-month window before resolution means May 2026 data will be available by the June 10 expiry, making this a relatively clean outcome bet.
The bull case rests on three concrete drivers: (1) 2024-2025 are tracking as top-3 hottest years globally, establishing a baseline warm anomaly, (2) El Niño conditions typically peak their warming effect in early 2026, meaning May sits in the sweet spot for elevated temperatures, and (3) long-term anthropogenic warming trends show consistent year-over-year increases without reversal. Multiple datasets from NOAA, NASA GISS, and Copernicus will provide May data by early June, and historical records show the last eight years have produced four of the five hottest Mays on record. The 74.5% probability suggests traders see this as more likely than not but still maintain meaningful uncertainty.
The bear case hinges on cyclical climate variability overshooting expectations: a surprise transition to La Niña conditions in late 2025 could cool the tropical Pacific and suppress global anomalies, or volcanic aerosols from any eruption between now and May 2026 could create temporary cooling. Additionally, monthly rankings can surprise—May 2026 could rank second-hottest while 2026 overall doesn’t achieve second-hottest status annually, creating basis risk. The 25.5% NO odds price in roughly 1-in-4 odds of either La Niña emergence or measurement uncertainty exceeding expectations.
Key catalysts to monitor include NOAA’s winter 2025-26 El Niño/La Niña forecast (typically issued October-November 2025), any major volcanic eruptions through Q1 2026, and February-April 2026 temperature data releases showing May trajectory. The expiry date of June 10, 2026 is firm—provisional May global temperature data from major agencies should be available by early June, though final rankings sometimes shift slightly with revisions. Traders should track the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) through winter 2025 to assess La Niña risk; values below -0.5°C would materially threaten the YES case.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What if May 2026 is very hot but 2026 overall ranks third instead of second-hottest for the year?
This market specifically asks about May’s monthly ranking, not the annual ranking for 2026, so if May 2026 is the second-hottest May on record (comparing only May months across all years), YES resolves regardless of where 2026 ranks annually.
How much could a volcanic eruption between now and May 2026 swing this market?
A major stratospheric eruption in late 2025 or early 2026 could suppress global temperatures by 0.1-0.3°C for several months, potentially knocking May 2026 from second-hottest to third or fourth, shifting fair odds substantially lower—this is the single largest exogenous risk to the YES thesis.