Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Nir Barkat, Jerusalem’s former mayor and current Likud minister, registers barely above zero on prediction markets for Israel’s next premiership, reflecting his position as a long-shot alternative in a political landscape still dominated by Benjamin Netanyahu despite ongoing legal troubles and coalition instability.

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	0.4%	99.6%	$10K	Trade on Polymarket

Market Analysis

The bull case for Barkat centers on his profile as a tech entrepreneur-turned-politician who could unite Likud’s base while appealing to centrist voters fatigued by Netanyahu’s polarizing tenure. If Netanyahu’s corruption trial concludes with conviction before the 2026 deadline, or if his coalition collapses and party primaries open, Barkat represents the most economically credible alternative within Likud’s ranks. His substantial personal wealth and mayoral record provide independent credibility, and he’s been positioning himself strategically by taking prominent ministerial roles and building relationships with party members. The ongoing judicial reform controversy and potential coalition fractures could create an unexpected opening.

The bear case is overwhelming: Netanyahu maintains iron control over Likud through institutional mechanisms and personal loyalty networks, with no indication he intends to step aside voluntarily before 2026. Even if forced out, multiple other contenders including Yoav Gallant, Israel Katz, and Yariv Levin rank ahead of Barkat in internal party dynamics. Opposition leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid poll significantly better nationally and would likely benefit from any center-right coalition realignment. The 0.4% odds reflect the reality that multiple low-probability events would need to align: Netanyahu’s exit, Barkat winning a Likud primary against better-positioned rivals, and then prevailing in a general election.

Key catalysts include Netanyahu’s corruption trial verdict timing (ongoing through 2024-2025), potential coalition collapse votes in the Knesset, and any Likud leadership primary that might emerge. Traders should monitor coalition stability metrics, particularly tensions with ultra-Orthodox and far-right partners, internal Likud polling on successor preferences, and whether Barkat receives higher-profile ministerial appointments that would signal Netanyahu’s blessing. The market essentially prices this as requiring a black swan event—barring dramatic unforeseen circumstances, Barkat remains a minor player in succession scenarios.

Related Markets

• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 4% YES
• Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — 2% YES
• Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? — 3% YES

Frequently Asked Questions

What would trigger a Likud leadership primary where Barkat could compete?

A criminal conviction forcing Netanyahu out or his voluntary resignation would activate Likud’s internal election mechanisms. Party rules would require a member vote within 60 days of a vacancy, though Netanyahu has successfully avoided such scenarios throughout his career.

How does Barkat’s support compare to other potential Likud successors?

Internal Likud polling consistently shows Barkat trailing Yoav Gallant, Israel Katz, and even Yariv Levin in member preferences for post-Netanyahu leadership. His base is primarily among younger, economically liberal party members rather than the traditional Likud core.

Could Barkat become PM without leading Likud first?

Theoretically possible through a national unity coalition, but exceptionally unlikely—Israeli political dynamics require leading a major party to credibly form government, and Barkat has shown no inclination to leave Likud and build an independent vehicle like Gantz or Lapid did.

Learn More

• Will Oil Hit $100? March Crude Prediction Market Odds
• Will ETH Hit $4,500 in 2026? Live Market Odds