How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the market's implied probability of an event occurring. A YES price of 75% means traders collectively believe there's a 75% chance the event will happen. You can buy YES (betting it will happen) or NO (betting it won't) and profit if you're correct.

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by End of 2026? 37.5%

Q: What are the current odds for "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?

As of July 1, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 37.5%.

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	37.5%	62.5%	$10K	Trade on Polymarket

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — 0% YES
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 1% YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? — 18% YES

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for “Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?”?

As of June 30, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 37.5%.

Where can I trade on this prediction market?

You can trade this market on Polymarket (crypto-based).

Learn More

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