This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on May 27, 2026
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Odds: 0.1% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Rick Caruso’s chances of winning California’s 2026 gubernatorial race sit at nearly zero on prediction markets, reflecting his status as a Republican-leaning independent in a state where Democrats hold overwhelming structural advantages and where he lost the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral race despite spending over $100 million of his own money.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.1% | 99.9% | $986K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bear case is overwhelming: California hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006, and the state has only grown more Democratic since then. Caruso’s 2022 mayoral defeat to Karen Bass, despite outspending her roughly 10-to-1 and switching his registration to Democrat specifically for that race, demonstrates the limits of self-funding in deep-blue jurisdictions. The Democratic primary field for 2026 is already taking shape with Lieutenant Governor Eliana Kounalakis and other prominent Democrats positioning themselves, while Caruso would need to decide whether to run as a Democrat (where primary voters rejected him locally) or as an independent (where he’d face near-impossible general election math). California’s top-two primary system means even reaching the November ballot would require outperforming multiple established Democratic politicians.
The bull case rests entirely on catastrophic Democratic failure or unprecedented political realignment. If California experiences a severe fiscal crisis, rolling blackouts, or public safety collapse between now and 2026, voter appetite for an outsider businessman could emerge. Caruso’s real estate empire and proven willingness to self-fund could make him viable if mainstream Democrats fragment or if a scandal removes leading contenders. His moderate positioning on some issues and history of Democratic donations until 2019 could theoretically appeal to a coalition of disaffected voters in a change election.
Key catalysts include California’s June 2026 primary and any announcements from Caruso about political intentions in early 2025. Watch whether Governor Newsom’s potential presidential ambitions create a vacuum, how Kounalakis and other Democrats perform in early fundraising, and whether California’s crime and homelessness trends show marked improvement or deterioration through 2025. The filing deadline for candidates typically falls in March 2026, which would force Caruso’s decision. Any polling showing generic “outsider” or “businessman” candidates gaining traction against named Democrats would be the earliest signal of possibility, though none currently exists.
Related Markets
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — 42% YES
- Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 1% YES
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? — 0% YES
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Caruso’s massive spending fail to win him the LA mayor’s race in 2022, and what does that mean for a statewide run?
Despite spending over $100 million, Caruso lost to Karen Bass by 7 points in a city more moderate than California overall, suggesting his self-funding model and centrist appeal has a hard ceiling even in favorable Democratic territory. Scaling that approach statewide would cost several times more with even less favorable voter demographics.
Could Caruso run as an independent and skip the Democratic primary entirely?
While possible, California’s top-two primary system means he’d need to finish in the top two alongside likely multiple Democrats and potentially a Republican, making a November ballot appearance extremely difficult without a major party’s base—and winning as a third-place finisher in the primary has no historical precedent in competitive statewide races.
What would need to happen for these odds to move above 5%?
A combination of Caruso announcing a run with credible polling showing him within 20 points of leading Democrats, a major scandal removing top Democratic contenders, or evidence of historic voter realignment in California’s partisan composition would be necessary—none of which appears remotely likely based on current political dynamics.