This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 2, 2026
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Odds: 4.3% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The market gives Sadegh Larijani less than 5% odds of becoming Iran’s next Supreme Leader, reflecting his position as a potential but far-from-frontrunner candidate in a succession process that remains opaque and heavily influenced by internal power dynamics within Iran’s clerical establishment.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 4.3% | 95.7% | $100K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case for Larijani centers on his extensive credentials within Iran’s theocratic system. As former Chief of the Judiciary (2009-2019) and current Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, he possesses the religious qualifications and institutional experience traditionally required for Supreme Leadership. His family’s revolutionary pedigree—his father was a prominent ayatollah and several brothers hold high positions—gives him elite connections within the Assembly of Experts, the 88-member clerical body that will select Khamenei’s successor. His hardline credentials and loyalty to the Islamic Revolution’s principles could appeal to conservative factions seeking continuity. Additionally, at 63, he represents a younger generation compared to other potential candidates while still having decades of system experience.
The bear case is compelling and explains the low probability. Larijani lacks the charismatic authority and popular legitimacy that characterized both Khomeini and Khamenei at their ascensions. More critically, Mojtaba Khamenei, the current Supreme Leader’s son, has reportedly been positioning himself as the preferred successor with direct backing from his father and key Revolutionary Guard commanders. The Assembly of Experts, while technically responsible for selection, has become increasingly packed with loyalists who may rubber-stamp a pre-determined choice. Larijani’s judicial tenure was marked by harsh crackdowns that made him internationally controversial but didn’t elevate his domestic profile significantly. The precedent strongly favors candidates with either revolutionary combat credentials or direct lineage to leadership—neither of which Larijani possesses in abundance.
The key catalyst is Ayatollah Khamenei’s health, as the 85-year-old leader’s death or incapacitation would immediately trigger the succession process. Reports in 2024 suggested declining health, though information remains tightly controlled. Traders should monitor Iranian state media for any unusual Assembly of Experts meetings or public statements about leadership continuity. The assembly typically meets biannually, with sessions providing rare glimpses into succession discussions. Any public endorsements from senior clerics or Revolutionary Guard commanders would significantly move probabilities, as would reports of Mojtaba Khamenei falling from favor. Western intelligence assessments occasionally leak succession insights that could impact market perception before the actual transition occurs.
Related Markets
- Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 1% YES
- Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? — 7% YES
- Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? — 7% YES
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Assembly of Experts actually select the Supreme Leader, and could they realistically choose Larijani over more favored candidates?
The 88-member Assembly of Experts theoretically deliberates and votes on the successor, but the body has become increasingly dominated by hardliners loyal to the current establishment. In practice, the selection likely involves pre-negotiations among powerful Revolutionary Guard commanders, senior clerics, and potentially Khamenei’s own preferences, making an outsider victory like Larijani’s unlikely without significant factional shifts.
What would need to happen for Larijani’s odds to significantly increase before the market expires in 2026?
Larijani would need either Mojtaba Khamenei to be publicly sidelined or discredited, explicit endorsements from multiple senior members of the Assembly of Experts, or a health crisis for Khamenei that triggers immediate succession while other frontrunners are unavailable or compromised. Any sign of Revolutionary Guard backing would be particularly significant.
Does Larijani’s international reputation for human rights violations hurt or help his succession chances within Iran’s system?
Within Iran’s hardline establishment, his harsh judicial record likely helps rather than hurts, demonstrating unwavering commitment to the regime’s security apparatus and willingness to suppress dissent. International condemnation carries minimal weight in the closed succession process, though it could theoretically matter if reformist factions gained unexpected influence in the Assembly of Experts.