How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the market's implied probability of an event occurring. A YES price of 75% means traders collectively believe there's a 75% chance the event will happen. You can buy YES (betting it will happen) or NO (betting it won't) and profit if you're correct.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026? 4.6%

Q: What are the current odds for "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?"?

As of July 10, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 4.6%.

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	4.6%	95.4%	$986K	Trade on Polymarket

Trump out as President before 2027? — 8% YES
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? — 2% YES
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? — 1% YES

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?”?

As of July 09, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 4.6%.

Where can I trade on this prediction market?

You can trade this market on Polymarket (crypto-based).

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