How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the market's implied probability of an event occurring. A YES price of 75% means traders collectively believe there's a 75% chance the event will happen. You can buy YES (betting it will happen) or NO (betting it won't) and profit if you're correct.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? 1.8%

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	1.8%	98.2%	$995K	Trade on Polymarket

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — 0% YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? — 52% YES
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? — 14% YES

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?”?

As of August 18, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 1.8%.

Where can I trade on this prediction market?

You can trade this market on Polymarket (crypto-based).

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