This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on April 28, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Odds: 3.8% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Prediction markets are pricing only a 3.8% chance that Iran’s Islamic Republic will collapse within the next 18 months, reflecting the regime’s proven durability despite ongoing economic pressure, social unrest, and international isolation. This market matters as a real-time assessment of Middle Eastern stability, with implications for oil markets, regional security dynamics, and nuclear negotiations.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 3.8% | 96.2% | $9.9M | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bear case for regime change (supporting the low probability) rests on the Islamic Republic’s extensive security apparatus, including the Revolutionary Guard Corps’ control over the economy and military, its demonstrated willingness to use lethal force against protesters, and the fragmented nature of Iran’s opposition movement. The regime survived the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests despite widespread participation, and maintains support from key constituencies including bazaar merchants and rural conservatives. Russia and China continue providing economic lifelines that reduce vulnerability to Western sanctions. Historically, authoritarian regimes with loyal security forces rarely fall without military defection or external intervention, neither of which appears imminent in Iran.
The bull case centers on compounding pressure points that could trigger sudden collapse. Iran’s economy faces 40%+ inflation with the rial at historic lows, creating conditions for mass unrest similar to 1979. Supreme Leader Khamenei’s age (85) and health concerns raise succession uncertainties that could fracture elite consensus. Escalating Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and proxy forces have exposed military vulnerabilities, while potential Trump administration “maximum pressure 2.0” sanctions could further destabilize the economy. Youth demographics matter: over 60% of Iranians were born after the 1979 revolution and show declining support for clerical rule in underground polling.
Key catalysts to monitor include Khamenei’s health status and any succession moves (no scheduled announcements but critical if triggered), Iran’s March 2026 Nowruz period when economic grievances typically surface, and potential Israeli military action against nuclear facilities at Fordow or Natanz. The expiration of UN conventional arms restrictions and snapback sanction provisions in October 2025 could either ease or intensify international pressure depending on Iran’s nuclear advances. Traders should watch oil prices, as sudden spikes above $100/barrel would give the regime breathing room, while sustained prices below $60 combined with strict sanction enforcement would accelerate economic crisis conditions.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What specific threshold defines regime “fall” for this market’s resolution?
The market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic government structure collapses, meaning the Supreme Leader position is eliminated or Iran transitions away from theocratic governance. Simple leadership changes within the existing system (like a new Supreme Leader selected by the Assembly of Experts) would not trigger resolution.
Could Israel’s military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program accelerate regime collapse?
Successful strikes degrading Iran’s nuclear capabilities could either destabilize the regime by exposing military weakness and triggering elite panic, or paradoxically strengthen it through nationalist rallying effects—historically, external attacks have unified Iranians behind leadership even when domestically unpopular.
How would succession after Khamenei’s death affect the odds of regime collapse by May 2026?
A contested succession between hardliners and pragmatists could fracture Revolutionary Guard unity and create openings for opposition movements, especially if combined with economic crisis. However, the Assembly of Experts has succession protocols designed to prevent power vacuums, making orderly transition to another hardline cleric the most likely scenario.