This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on February 28, 2026
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? Odds: 14.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Traders are pricing in a low but non-negligible 14.5% chance that the US will conduct a cyberattack on Iran before April 2026, reflecting ongoing tensions but no immediate crisis that would make such action likely in the near term. This market matters because it serves as a real-time gauge of perceived escalation risk between the two nations, particularly as Iran’s nuclear program advances and regional proxy conflicts continue.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14.5% | 85.5% | $98K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case centers on Iran’s uranium enrichment reaching weapons-grade levels, which could prompt a US cyber response similar to the Stuxnet operation that disrupted centrifuges in 2010. Iran announced in January 2025 that it had begun enriching uranium to 90% purity at underground facilities, crossing a key threshold. Additionally, if Iranian-backed groups escalate attacks on US forces in Iraq or Syria, or if Iran transfers advanced weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine, the Biden administration might authorize cyber operations as a calibrated response below the threshold of kinetic strikes. The IAEA’s next quarterly report on Iran’s nuclear activities, due in March 2025, could provide a catalyst if it documents significant program advancement.
The bear case rests on the substantial diplomatic efforts underway to prevent escalation. Informal negotiations between the US and Iran through intermediaries in Oman have continued throughout early 2025, focusing on constraining Iran’s nuclear program and reducing regional tensions. Cyber operations of this magnitude require presidential authorization and typically occur only when diplomatic channels have failed completely. The US has also historically been reluctant to acknowledge offensive cyber operations publicly, making attribution difficult and potentially complicating market resolution. With the 2026 midterm elections approaching in November, the administration may prefer avoiding major foreign policy confrontations that could become domestically controversial.
Traders should monitor several key indicators: IAEA inspection reports issued quarterly (next due March 2025, June 2025), any changes in US military cyber posture or CYBERCOM readiness levels, Iranian statements about nuclear threshold status, and incidents involving US forces in the Middle East. Watch for Congressional briefings on Iran threats, which sometimes precede executive action, and any sudden diplomatic activity orenvoy deployments. Changes in Israeli rhetoric about unilateral action could also shift probabilities, as coordination between US and Israeli cyber capabilities has historical precedent.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What qualifies as a cyberattack for this market’s resolution criteria?
Resolution typically requires public attribution by the US government or credible reporting from major intelligence sources confirming US responsibility for disrupting Iranian infrastructure, military systems, or critical networks. Routine cyber espionage or defensive operations would not qualify.
How would this market resolve if a cyberattack occurs but isn’t publicly confirmed until after March 31, 2026?
The market likely resolves based on when the attack actually occurred, not when it was disclosed, though this creates resolution ambiguity that traders should account for in their pricing. Previous cyber operations like Stuxnet weren’t confirmed for years after execution.
What role does Israel play in affecting this market’s probability?
Israeli cyber operations against Iran could occur independently and wouldn’t trigger a YES resolution, but close US-Israel intelligence coordination means joint operations are possible, and Israeli unilateral strikes might prompt US cyber follow-up actions that would count.