This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on April 25, 2026
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? Odds: 2.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The market pricing measles cases reaching 1800 by April 2026 at just 2.5% reflects extreme skepticism that the U.S. will see such an outbreak, given that annual cases have remained below 1,300 since 2019 and totaled only 58 in 2023 according to CDC data.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 2.5% | 97.5% | $99K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case centers on deteriorating vaccination rates and recent outbreaks signaling a trend reversal. CDC data shows kindergarten vaccination exemptions reached a record 3.3% in the 2023-24 school year, while MMR coverage has declined to 92.3%, below the 95% threshold needed for herd immunity. Oregon, Idaho, and other states with permissive exemption laws have seen measles vaccination rates drop into the 80s in some counties. If current outbreaks in undervaccinated communities—like the recent cases in Pennsylvania and Ohio—spark sustained transmission chains, exponential growth could push numbers dramatically higher. The appointment of vaccine skeptics to health policy positions in 2025 could further accelerate exemption rates and delay outbreak responses. International travel from endemic countries, particularly as tourism rebounds, provides constant reintroduction risk to vulnerable populations.
The bear case emphasizes that reaching 1800 cases would require roughly triple the worst year since measles elimination was declared in 2000 (667 cases in 2014). Despite declining vaccination rates, the vast majority of Americans remain immunized, creating substantial population-level barriers to widespread transmission. Even with recent upticks, 2024 saw only around 270 cases through year-end. Public health infrastructure, though strained, still conducts contact tracing and ring vaccination during outbreaks. Schools in most states maintain vaccination requirements, limiting sustained transmission in the primary at-risk population. Each outbreak since 2000 has been contained before reaching exponential growth, and measles’ high R0 paradoxically means outbreaks burn through susceptible pockets quickly without spreading more broadly.
Traders should monitor CDC’s weekly measles case reports and the agency’s vaccination coverage data released each fall for kindergarten enrollment. State legislative sessions in early 2025 will reveal whether more states follow recent trends toward easier exemptions, with bills in Idaho, Missouri, and West Virginia already filed. The key inflection point would be sustained community transmission in multiple metropolitan areas simultaneously—something not seen since before elimination—which would require case counts to persistently exceed 50-75 weekly by late 2025 to reach 1800 by the April 2026 deadline.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What case count would need to be reached by January 2026 to make 1800 by April realistic?
The U.S. would likely need at least 1,000-1,200 confirmed cases by January 2026 to establish the trajectory necessary for 1800 by April 30, requiring sustained community transmission beyond typical contained outbreak patterns.
How does this market’s 1800 threshold compare to historical measles outbreaks since elimination?
The 1800 case threshold would be nearly triple the worst year since 2000 elimination (667 cases in 2014, primarily linked to Disneyland outbreak) and more than 30 times the 2023 total of 58 cases.
Which states’ vaccination exemption laws pose the greatest risk for reaching this threshold?
Idaho (12.5% kindergarten exemption rate), Alaska (9.6%), and Oregon have the highest exemption rates and largest susceptible populations, making them most likely to experience initial outbreak clusters that could potentially spread.