This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 1, 2026
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Odds: 5.9% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The market assigns only a 5% probability to Trump facing impeachment by June 2026, reflecting both Republican control of the House through at least January 2027 and the high bar for initiating impeachment proceedings against a sitting president from the majority party. This matters as a gauge of whether traders anticipate any catastrophic political shift or scandal capable of fracturing GOP unity within the first 18 months of Trump’s term.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5.1% | 94.8% | $97K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case for impeachment hinges on an unforeseen crisis that splits Republicans: potential scenarios include criminal charges related to January 6th proceedings reaching critical mass, a major constitutional violation that even GOP moderates cannot defend, or Democrats capturing the House in the 2026 midterms (held November 3, 2026) and moving immediately to impeach before the June 30 deadline. The midterm scenario is extremely tight timing-wise, as a new Congress wouldn’t be seated until January 2027, leaving essentially no window for impeachment proceedings to conclude by late June. A more realistic bull case would require House Republicans themselves to initiate proceedings, which would demand an extraordinary breach of party loyalty.
The bear case is straightforward: Republicans hold the House majority through January 2027, and impeachment requires a simple majority vote in the House. No Republican Speaker would bring articles of impeachment to the floor absent overwhelming pressure from the caucus, and Trump retains strong support among the GOP base. Historical precedent shows impeachment is rare and typically requires either opposition party control or a genuine bipartisan consensus around serious misconduct. Even the 2026 midterms, which historically favor the opposition party, would need to deliver Democratic control and leave time for articles to be drafted and voted on within six months of the new Congress convening—an implausible timeline.
Key catalysts include any major legal developments in Trump’s ongoing cases through spring 2025, the first real test of Republican unity on controversial Trump actions during the 2025 legislative session, generic ballot polling through 2025-2026 indicating a potential Democratic wave, and Special Counsel findings if any investigations continue. Traders should monitor approval ratings among Republican voters specifically, as impeachment becomes viable only if Trump’s GOP support drops below 60-65%, creating space for defections. The 2026 midterm primaries beginning in March 2026 will signal whether anti-Trump Republicans can gain any foothold.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Could the 2026 midterm elections realistically lead to impeachment before June 30, 2026?
Extremely unlikely—the new Congress doesn’t convene until January 3, 2027, which is after the market’s June 30, 2026 deadline. Impeachment would need to occur under the current Republican-controlled House.
What would it take for a Republican-controlled House to impeach Trump?
An extraordinary scandal that fractures the party, likely involving clear criminal activity or constitutional violations that threaten vulnerable Republicans in swing districts ahead of 2026 midterms. Trump’s approval among GOP voters would need to collapse below 50%.
Does this market require conviction by the Senate or just House impeachment?
Only House impeachment is required for this market to resolve YES. The House can impeach with a simple majority vote, while Senate conviction requires two-thirds and is a separate process not measured here.