This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on June 10, 2026
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Odds: 0.2% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Yoaz Hendel, a former communications minister and center-right Knesset member who left politics in 2022, faces near-impossible odds at 0.2% to become Israel’s next Prime Minister, reflecting both his current absence from electoral politics and the dominance of established party leaders in Israel’s fragmented political landscape.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.2% | 99.8% | $995K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bear case is overwhelming: Hendel currently holds no political office after choosing not to run in the 2022 elections, and Israel’s parliamentary system typically elevates party leaders who command significant Knesset blocs rather than individual figures without organizational backing. Netanyahu’s Likud, Gantz’s National Unity party, and Lapid’s Yesh Atid control the major pathways to the premiership. Even if Hendel returns to politics, he would need to either build a new party capable of winning 30+ seats or convince an existing major party to accept him as leader—scenarios with no visible groundwork. His previous party, the New Hope-led alliance, essentially dissolved, and he lacks the national name recognition of top-tier candidates.
The bull case requires extraordinary political realignment: If the Gaza war continues deteriorating Netanyahu’s standing and both Gantz and Lapid become politically toxic, the center-right could desperately seek a fresh face with security credentials and moderate positioning. Hendel’s background in military intelligence and his reputation as a pragmatist could theoretically position him as a unity candidate if Israel’s current leadership completely implodes. A scenario where he joins an existing party, rapidly rises through its ranks during a crisis period, and leads it to electoral victory before 2027 remains technically possible, though it would require multiple low-probability events occurring sequentially.
Key catalysts include any announcement of Hendel returning to active politics, coalition collapse triggering early elections (current government remains unstable with narrow majority), and polling data showing collapse in support for Netanyahu, Gantz, and Lapid simultaneously. The ongoing war crimes proceedings and domestic protests against Netanyahu could accelerate political volatility. Traders should monitor Israeli political party registration deadlines, typically 90 days before elections, and watch whether Hendel makes any media appearances signaling renewed political ambitions. The 2026 deadline gives theoretical time for a political comeback, but without movement by mid-2025, even the current minimal odds would appear generous.
Related Markets
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — 1% YES
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — 4% YES
- Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? — 1% YES
Frequently Asked Questions
Has Yoaz Hendel indicated any intention to return to Israeli politics since leaving in 2022?
There have been no public statements or reporting suggesting Hendel plans a political comeback. His silence on returning to politics makes even a 0.2% probability questionable.
What would need to happen for Hendel to legally become Prime Minister given Israel’s parliamentary system?
He would need to either lead a party that wins enough Knesset seats to form a governing coalition or be selected as compromise candidate by coalition partners—both requiring him to first re-enter politics and build substantial party infrastructure.
Could Hendel become PM without new elections before the 2026 deadline?
Theoretically yes if the current coalition collapses and he somehow becomes the consensus choice among sitting Knesset members to form a new government, but this scenario has no precedent for someone currently outside the Knesset.