2026 Oscar Predictions: What Betting Markets Say About the 98th Academy Awards

Forget your office Oscar pool. Forget the guy on Film Twitter who’s “never wrong.” If you want the most accurate 2026 Oscar predictions available, look at where people are betting real money.

Prediction markets have been outperforming expert panels at forecasting Oscar winners for over a decade. The reason is simple: when you have to bet your own cash on who’s winning Best Supporting Actress, you get honest pretty fast. No hot takes for engagement, no hedging with “it could go either way” — just cold, hard implied probabilities backed by dollars.

Here’s what the markets are saying about the biggest races at the 98th Academy Awards.

Best Supporting Actress: Elle Fanning

Elle Fanning has emerged as the frontrunner, and the prediction markets agree. You can see her live odds here.

Why She’s the Favorite

Fanning has been building momentum all awards season with the kind of performance the Academy loves in this category: understated, emotionally precise, and clearly in service of the bigger story. The supporting categories tend to reward what feels like a “discovery” — even when the actor is already well-known — and Fanning’s work nails that vibe.

The precursors look strong too:

• SAG nomination/win — guild awards are the single best predictor of Oscar outcomes
• Critical consensus — basically everyone who reviewed it praised her performance
• Smart campaign — visible but not overbearing, which voters respond to

But Don’t Count Out an Upset

The supporting categories are famous for surprises. Voters sometimes use these races to honor a veteran or make a political statement. If you’ve been following the Oscars long enough, you know that “overwhelming favorite” has a way of losing on the night that matters.

That said, the market has this one priced for a reason. When the money talks, Elle Fanning is the answer.

Best Supporting Actor: Jacob Elordi

The Best Supporting Actor race has a clear leader too. Check Jacob Elordi’s current odds for the latest.

Why Elordi Is Winning This

Jacob Elordi is having the awards season everyone in Hollywood dreams about: the “we always knew he was talented, but wow” moment. His performance goes places you don’t expect, mixing vulnerability with intensity in a way that’s tough to pull off. It’s the kind of work that makes voters feel smart for recognizing it.

A few things working in his favor:

• The narrative — young star making a dramatic leap? The Academy loves that story.
• Precursor results — strong showings at the guilds and critics’ circles
• Broad appeal — works for the traditional voters and the newer, younger Academy members

The Upset Risk

This category has produced some legendary upsets. Sometimes a veteran actor with a decades-long career gets the “it’s their time” vote. Sometimes a late-surging performance catches fire in the final week. Keep an eye on how the event contract price moves in the days before voting closes — sudden shifts often signal insider knowledge filtering into the market.

Best Costume Design: Frankenstein

Here’s where it gets fun. The craft categories are the hidden gem of Oscar prediction markets — less attention, fewer traders, and often more opportunities to find mispriced odds. This is how making money in prediction markets actually works: find markets where the crowd isn’t paying attention.

See Frankenstein’s odds for Best Costume Design.

Why Frankenstein Has the Edge

Costume design voters are working costume designers. They vote with a professional eye, and they love visible craftsmanship — elaborate period pieces, genre films with distinctive looks, costumes that you notice. Subtle modern-dress films rarely win here. Frankenstein, with its detailed period and genre work, checks every box.

Why This Category Is Worth Watching

Here’s the thing about craft categories: they often diverge from the Best Picture race. A film that’s not a serious contender for the top prize can still sweep the technical awards. The people voting for costume design are specialists, and they sometimes disagree strongly with the broader Academy consensus. That disconnect is where prediction market edge lives.

How Accurate Are Oscar Prediction Markets?

Pretty damn accurate, actually:

• Heavy favorites (priced above 70%) win about 80% of the time
• Moderate favorites (50-70%) win around 55-65% of the time
• Genuine upsets (winner priced below 30%) happen in maybe 5-10% of categories per year

That calibration is solid — when the market says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time. It’s hard to consistently beat, but opportunities exist, especially in the less-liquid categories where fewer people are paying close attention. Our probability calculator can help you convert contract prices into true edge estimates.

The Oscar Prediction Market Calendar

If you’re going to trade Oscar contracts, timing matters:

• Pre-nomination (Oct-Jan): Wild swings, low liquidity. Guild nominations cause the biggest moves.
• Post-nomination (Jan-Feb): Prices start converging. Guild wins are the key repricing events.
• Final voting week: Most efficient pricing, but late insider information can still create value.
• Ceremony day: Frontrunners priced at 90%+. Not much edge left unless you’re truly contrarian.

Use the Kelly criterion calculator to size your Oscar bets optimally based on your edge. The sweet spot for trading is between guild wins and the final voting deadline. That’s when you have the most information but the market hasn’t fully priced it in yet. For more on timing your entries and exits, see our guide to prediction market strategies.

Bottom Line

Prediction markets say Elle Fanning (Supporting Actress), Jacob Elordi (Supporting Actor), and Frankenstein (Costume Design) are the ones to beat.

History says they’re probably right. But “probably” isn’t “definitely” — and that gap is where it gets interesting. Whether you’re a film buff with strong opinions or just someone who likes the idea of getting paid for being right about the Oscars, prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are the most fun way to put your knowledge to the test. Not sure which platform to pick? Read our Kalshi review, our Polymarket guide, or our head-to-head comparison.