Polymarket February 2026: Iran at 97%, $36M on Elon's Tweets

February 2026 was one of the wildest months in Polymarket’s history. US airstrikes on Iran sent regime change odds to 97%. Traders wagered $36 million on how many times Elon Musk would tweet in a single week. And the Fed held rates steady while traders started positioning for the 2028 presidential race — three years early.

Here’s a rundown of the biggest markets that defined the month on Polymarket.

Iran Regime Change: From Long Shot to Near-Certainty

The biggest story of February was the dramatic surge in Iran-related markets. After the US launched strikes against Iranian targets, the “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader by February 28” market rocketed to 96% — with $57.5 million in total volume.

The longer-dated version (by March 31) climbed even higher to 97%, attracting $36.8M in volume. Traders are pricing in regime change as nearly inevitable, a remarkable shift from where odds stood just weeks ago.

Related markets on US strikes against Iran pulled in $54M in total volume, while Iran’s potential retaliatory strike on Israel saw heavy action too. Geopolitics dominated Polymarket in February like no other category.

Elon Musk Tweet Count: $36M in Pure Speculation

In one of the most uniquely Polymarket markets ever, traders bet $36 million on how many times Elon Musk would tweet during the week of February 24 to March 3. The 220-239 tweet range led at 20% odds, implying roughly 30 tweets per day.

The low ranges (under 120 tweets) collapsed to 0% despite having the highest volume — a classic sign of capitulation, with early bettors cutting their losses. A second overlapping market for February 27 to March 6 added another $30M in volume.

Say what you want about whether this deserves $66M in combined bets. It’s pure Polymarket — the kind of market that can’t exist anywhere else.

The Fed: 94% Odds of No Change in March

The Federal Reserve’s March 2026 decision is one of Polymarket’s most liquid markets with $189M in total volume. Traders are overwhelmingly pricing in no rate change at 94%, with a 25 basis point cut at just 4% and a 50+ bps cut at 1%.

This aligns with the broader macro picture — inflation remains sticky, the economy’s holding up, and the Fed has signaled patience. The real action here isn’t whether they’ll hold (they almost certainly will), but who Trump will nominate as the next Fed Chair once Jerome Powell’s term ends.

Trump’s Fed Chair Pick: Kevin Warsh at 91%

Speaking of which — the “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?” market has attracted a staggering $551M in total volume, making it one of the highest-volume markets Polymarket has ever hosted. Kevin Warsh is the overwhelming favorite at 91%.

This is a market where early positioning paid off. Warsh was priced much lower months ago, and traders who got in early have seen massive returns as the odds compressed. This kind of early-mover edge is exactly what we cover in our guide on prediction market strategies.

2028 Presidential Race: Already $733M in Volume

The 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee market has quietly become the most-traded market on Polymarket at $733M total volume. The field is wide open — Gretchen Whitmer, Oprah Winfrey, and Stephen A. Smith (yes, really) are all trading at low single-digit percentages.

The general election market (Presidential Election Winner 2028) has pulled in $344M. Eric Trump appears on the board at 1%. It’s still very early, but the volume shows traders are already taking serious positions on the next cycle.

Sports: FIFA World Cup and Premier League

Sports markets continued to see massive liquidity:

• 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner: $223M total volume, Spain favored at 15%
• English Premier League Winner: $276M total volume

These markets consistently rank among Polymarket’s highest-volume offerings, driven by global interest and ongoing season-long betting. You can compare sports odds across platforms on our live odds page.

Venezuela: Political Transition at $69M

The Venezuela leadership market has attracted $68.6M in total volume, with María Corina Machado at 14% to lead the country by end of 2026. The uncertainty around Maduro’s grip on power — and international pressure following disputed elections — keeps this market active.

Bitcoin: Where Does It Go From Here?

The “What price will Bitcoin hit in February?” market pulled in $121M in total volume, though by month’s end the extreme targets ($120K+, $150K+) had all collapsed to 0%. For a deeper look at BTC price predictions, see our analysis of whether Bitcoin will hit $75,000 in 2026. Bitcoin spent February trading well below those aspirational levels, and traders have adjusted accordingly.

Vietnam Leadership Transition

In a less-covered but high-volume market, the “Next President of Vietnam” race attracted $20M with Tô Lâm leading at 86%. Political transition markets outside the US are a growing category on Polymarket, reflecting the platform’s global user base.

What Made February 2026 Unique

A few things stood out:

Geopolitics dominated. Iran markets alone accounted for over $150M in combined volume. Polymarket proved again that it’s the go-to platform for real-time geopolitical sentiment — faster and often more accurate than polls or pundit predictions.

Novelty markets went mainstream. The $66M wagered on Elon’s tweet count shows that Polymarket’s appeal goes far beyond traditional political betting. When someone asks what prediction markets are, this is the kind of market that captures attention.

Early 2028 positioning is real. Over $1 billion in combined volume on 2028 election markets — three years before the vote — signals that prediction markets are becoming a permanent fixture of the political landscape, not just a novelty during election season.

How to Trade These Markets

If you’re new to Polymarket, start with our complete Polymarket guide. You’ll need USDC on the Polygon network to trade — here’s how to deposit.

For US-based traders who want similar markets with regulatory protection, Kalshi offers CFTC-regulated event contracts on economics, weather, crypto, and more. Check our Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison to see which platform fits your needs.

And if you made money this month, don’t forget — Polymarket doesn’t send you a 1099. You’re responsible for tracking your own gains. Need to withdraw your profits? We’ve got a guide for that too.