Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?

The market gives Colombian President Gustavo Petro only a 2.5% chance of losing power before June 30, 2026, reflecting strong consensus that he’ll serve out his constitutional term despite ongoing political turbulence and historically low approval ratings hovering around 30-35%.

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	2.5%	97.5%	$100K	Trade on Polymarket

Market Analysis

The bull case for Petro’s removal centers on potential impeachment proceedings or forced resignation. Colombia’s opposition-controlled Congress has explored investigations into Petro’s 2022 campaign financing, with allegations of exceeding spending limits drawing parallels to the process that threatened prior administrations. His son’s arrest on money laundering charges in late 2023 intensified scrutiny of the president’s inner circle. If concrete evidence emerges linking Petro directly to corruption or constitutional violations, Congress could initiate removal proceedings. Additionally, massive protests similar to those in 2021 could create ungovernable conditions forcing resignation, particularly if security forces fracture in their loyalty. The Constitutional Court’s review of emergency decrees and reform attempts could also produce rulings that corner Petro politically.

The bear case—which markets clearly favor—rests on institutional stability and lack of constitutional mechanisms for easy removal. Colombian presidents have historically completed their terms even amid controversies and low approval ratings. Petro’s coalition, while weakened, retains enough legislative support to block impeachment efforts that require supermajorities. The military has shown no signs of disloyalty, making extra-constitutional removals extremely unlikely. Previous investigations into Colombian presidents have dragged on for years without producing removals, and the Fiscalía (Attorney General’s office) has not brought charges that would automatically trigger removal. Petro also maintains a committed base of 25-30% support that would mobilize against any removal attempt.

Key catalysts to monitor include the Constitutional Court’s rulings on healthcare and pension reforms expected in Q1 2025, congressional midterm dynamics through March 2026 (though Colombia lacks formal midterms, coalition shifts occur continuously), and any formal charges from ongoing investigations into campaign finance. The Attorney General’s timeline for completing corruption probes will be critical—historically these extend 18-24 months. Watch for Petro’s approval ratings in major polls from Invamer and CNC; a drop below 25% could embolden opposition efforts. The 2025 regional elections in October will test his party’s strength and potentially shift congressional dynamics through coalition realignments.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What constitutional mechanisms exist for removing a Colombian president before their term ends?

Colombia requires Congress to approve impeachment charges through a complex process involving both chambers with high vote thresholds, or the president must be convicted of crimes by the Supreme Court. Neither path is quick—typically requiring 12-18 months minimum even with strong evidence.

Has a Colombian president ever been removed from office mid-term?

No Colombian president has been successfully removed through impeachment or forced resignation since the 1991 constitution, though several have faced investigations and one (Samper) survived an impeachment attempt in the 1990s despite proven cartel financing.

What would happen to Colombia’s government if Petro left office before June 2026?

Vice President Francia Márquez would automatically assume the presidency for the remainder of the term until August 2026, maintaining the current left-wing administration’s policies with potentially even more progressive positions on ethnic and environmental issues.