How do prediction market odds work?

Prediction market prices represent the market's implied probability of an event occurring. A YES price of 75% means traders collectively believe there's a 75% chance the event will happen. You can buy YES (betting it will happen) or NO (betting it won't) and profit if you're correct.

Iran leadership change by July 31? 3.8%

Q: What are the current odds for "Iran leadership change by July 31?"?

As of July 9, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 3.8%.

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	3.8%	96.2%	$99K	Trade on Polymarket

Trump out as President before 2027? — 8% YES
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? — 3% YES
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? — 1% YES

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for “Iran leadership change by July 31?”?

As of July 08, 2026, Polymarket prices YES at 3.8%.

Where can I trade on this prediction market?

You can trade this market on Polymarket (crypto-based).

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