Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

Traders are pricing in roughly two-in-five odds that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will be removed from office before the end of 2026, reflecting deep uncertainty about the regime’s stability and the reformist president’s ability to navigate Iran’s factional politics following his July 2024 election. This market matters because Pezeshkian’s tenure represents a test of whether relatively moderate voices can survive within Iran’s theocratic system amid economic crisis, ongoing protests, and regional tensions.

Current Odds

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Trade
Polymarket	41.0%	59.0%	$100K	Trade on Polymarket

Market Analysis

The bull case for Pezeshkian’s exit centers on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the hardline Revolutionary Guard maintaining ultimate power and showing historic intolerance for presidents who drift toward reform. Economic conditions continue deteriorating under sanctions, with inflation persistently above 40% and the rial near historic lows, creating conditions where the establishment typically scapegoats elected officials. The Guardian Council and other unelected bodies have previously sidelined or forced out reformist presidents when they threatened conservative interests, and Pezeshkian’s promises of social liberalization and engagement with the West directly conflict with hardliner ideology. If protests resurface similar to the 2022 Mahsa Amini demonstrations, particularly around the September 2024 anniversary, conservatives could move to replace him with a more compliant figure.

The bear case rests on Pezeshkian understanding the system’s constraints better than previous reformists, having already moderated his rhetoric and made key compromises with conservatives. His appointment of hardliners to critical security positions suggests he’s building protective alliances rather than challenging the power structure directly. Iran’s leadership may calculate that removing another president would further delegitimize the Islamic Republic’s electoral facade at a time when regime stability matters more than ideological purity. The two-year timeline extends well beyond typical political crisis windows, and absent major triggering events like a confrontation with Israel escalating or a complete economic collapse, institutional inertia favors allowing him to complete at least a partial term.

Key catalysts to monitor include Iran’s February 2025 parliamentary elections, where hardliner performance will signal whether conservatives feel confident enough to tolerate Pezeshkian or need to reassert control. The March 2025 Iranian New Year typically brings renewed economic pressures and potential protests. Any nuclear negotiations breakthrough or failure with Western powers in 2025 could dramatically shift internal dynamics. Watch for changes in Revolutionary Guard rhetoric toward Pezeshkian, Guardian Council interventions blocking his legislative priorities, and whether supreme leader Khamenei’s health issues (he’s 85) create succession dynamics that make a presidential transition more attractive to power brokers positioning for the post-Khamenei era.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Does “out by December 31” include both forced removal and resignation, or only impeachment-style exits?

The market typically resolves YES for any scenario where Pezeshkian is no longer president, including forced resignation, removal by the Guardian Council, impeachment by parliament, or death. Voluntary resignation for personal reasons would also qualify.

What specific mechanisms could hardliners use to remove Pezeshkian without an obvious coup?

Iran’s Guardian Council can disqualify sitting presidents from completing their terms, parliament can impeach through a no-confidence vote, or the Supreme Leader can directly dismiss him under claimed emergency powers, all providing quasi-legal cover for removal that the regime has employed against governors and officials before.

How does the December 2026 timeline relate to Iran’s presidential term length?

Iranian presidents serve four-year terms, so Pezeshkian’s term runs until mid-2028; this market covers roughly his first half-term, the period when new presidents typically face the strongest factional challenges and when the establishment determines whether to fully accept or undermine them.