This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 31, 2026
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Odds: 41.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future hanging in the balance at roughly 40% odds of departure by end of 2026, this market captures uncertainty around multiple existential threats to his tenure including ongoing corruption trials, coalition fragility, and potential fallout from the Gaza war’s aftermath.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 41.5% | 58.5% | $987K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case for Netanyahu’s exit centers on his Supreme Court trial proceedings, where he faces charges of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery across three separate cases with testimony extending into 2025. A conviction in any case could trigger immediate removal from office, while his governing coalition remains razor-thin and dependent on far-right partners who could withdraw support if their demands aren’t met. Additionally, public approval ratings have fluctuated significantly since October 7th, and renewed mass protests over judicial reform or war conduct could destabilize his government. The next scheduled election isn’t until 2026, but early elections remain possible if coalition partners defect or if Labor/Yesh Atid successfully bring a no-confidence motion.
The bear case rests on Netanyahu’s proven political durability and skill at maintaining power despite previous predictions of his demise. He’s successfully delayed trial proceedings for years and could continue doing so past 2026, while his Likud party lacks an obvious successor willing to challenge him. His coalition partners, despite occasional threats, have strong incentives to maintain the current government rather than risk losing power in new elections where polls suggest a center-left resurgence. The prosecution’s case, while serious, requires navigating a lengthy appeals process even if convicted at trial level.
Key catalysts to monitor include the Supreme Court trial schedule through 2025, with critical witness testimony from former aide Nir Hefetz and verdict timing potentially in late 2025 or early 2026. Watch for the 2026 budget negotiations in early 2026, a traditional breaking point for Israeli coalitions, and any polling showing Likud dropping below 25 Knesset seats which could embolden internal challengers. The IDF’s withdrawal timeline from Gaza and any official inquiry findings on October 7th intelligence failures could also reshape public sentiment decisively.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How would Netanyahu’s corruption trial verdict actually remove him from office if he’s convicted?
Unlike other Israeli officials, the Prime Minister isn’t automatically removed upon conviction at the district court level, but a Supreme Court conviction after appeals would likely force his resignation or trigger legislation mandating removal. However, his coalition could theoretically pass laws to keep him in office even then, though this would spark constitutional crisis.
What happens to this market if Netanyahu leaves office temporarily for medical reasons or a brief coalition rotation deal?
The market resolves YES only if Netanyahu permanently ceases to be Prime Minister before the deadline, so temporary absences or rotation agreements where he returns don’t count. A rotation deal would need to explicitly end his tenure for good to trigger resolution.
Could Netanyahu call early elections strategically to reset his position, and how would that affect his survival odds?
Netanyahu could dissolve the Knesset and call snap elections if he believes Likud would gain seats, but current polling shows opposition parties leading, making this risky. If he loses such an election, he’d be out before 2026, but winning would actually strengthen his position and extend his tenure past the deadline.