This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on April 4, 2026
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Odds: 48.0% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Strait of Hormuz Transit Volume Market Analysis
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 48.0% | 52.0% | $10K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The market sits at near-even odds despite the Strait of Hormuz historically seeing 20+ transits daily, suggesting traders are pricing in either a major geopolitical disruption or skepticism about data verification. This contract matters because it directly hedges shipping and energy exposure to Middle East escalation, with roughly two years for multiple potential crisis scenarios to unfold.
The bull case for YES rests on baseline normality: approximately 21% of global oil transits the Strait daily under typical conditions, and a single day hitting 20 vessels requires no extraordinary activity. Even during recent tensions—the October 2024 Iranian missile strikes and subsequent Israeli responses—transit volumes remained resilient. The market’s 48% odds actually undervalue the historical baseline probability, making YES attractive for those betting on supply chains’ resistance to geopolitical noise. The bear case assumes a genuine blockade or military intervention: an Iranian closure following a potential Israeli strike on nuclear facilities, a U.S. naval interdiction campaign, or a full-scale regional war could easily push daily transits below 20 for extended periods. The 2026 timeframe captures the window where Iran’s nuclear program faces critical decision points under incoming U.S. administrations, creating tail-risk scenarios that justify the current discount.
Key catalysts include Iran’s nuclear negotiations trajectory through mid-2025, any Israeli military action against Iranian facilities (which could trigger Persian Gulf closures), and OPEC production decisions affecting throughput pressure. The Trump administration’s return (January 2025) historically correlates with harder Iran stances, though oil-price concerns may complicate aggressive escalation. Traders should monitor Suez Canal disruptions as a proxy—Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have already diverted some traffic around Africa, reducing Hormuz dependency and making 20-transit days less likely despite normal geopolitical conditions.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a “transit” for this contract—does it include ships anchored or waiting in the strait?
The contract typically requires active passage through the waterway, not anchorage, though exact definitions depend on Polymarket’s oracle source; check the market’s terms for whether it references AIS tracking data or official port authorities.
If a blockade closes the strait for days, does the market resolve NO for those dates even if other dates exceed 20 transits?
Yes—the contract asks if 20 ships transit “on any day,” meaning a single qualifying day triggers YES; closure periods don’t negate earlier or later days that hit the threshold.
How would the contract handle data disputes if transit numbers are borderline (19 vs. 21 ships)?
Resolution depends on Polymarket’s chosen oracle, typically AIS shipping databases or maritime authorities; close calls often trigger dispute resolution, so look for the market’s specific data source in fine print before betting large.