This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on April 8, 2026
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Odds: 0.4% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The market pricing near-zero odds for nine Fed rate cuts in 2026 reflects extreme skepticism that the Federal Reserve would deliver the equivalent of 225 basis points in easing over a single calendar year, a pace historically associated only with severe recessions or financial crises. With the federal funds rate currently in the 4.25-4.50% range as of early 2025, nine cuts would bring rates close to zero, a scenario traders view as extraordinarily unlikely absent catastrophic economic deterioration.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.4% | 99.6% | $998K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case for this outcome requires a severe economic shock materializing in 2025 or early 2026—think unemployment spiking above 6-7%, core CPI deflating below 1%, or a banking crisis forcing emergency action. The Fed cut rates by 225 basis points in just four months during the 2007-2008 financial crisis and took the funds rate to zero during COVID-19, establishing precedent for aggressive easing during genuine emergencies. For this market to hit, we’d likely need to see deeply negative GDP prints in Q1 and Q2 2026, with the Fed implementing multiple 50-basis-point cuts rather than the standard 25. The bear case is simply that the U.S. economy would need to experience unprecedented disaster for such extreme monetary policy, and even during the 2008 crisis, the Fed only cut seven times that calendar year, not nine.
Critical catalysts include the January 31, 2025 FOMC decision and subsequent meetings on March 19, May 7, June 18, September 17, November 5, and December 17, 2025—the Fed’s current trajectory heading into 2026 will establish baseline expectations. Monthly CPI releases (next major one February 12, 2025) and nonfarm payrolls reports (next on February 7) will determine whether the economy remains resilient or begins deteriorating. The January 2026 FOMC statement will be particularly telling, as it would need to signal an emergency cutting cycle for nine cuts to fit into the remaining eleven months.
Traders should monitor the 2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve for inversion deepening, unemployment rate trajectory in monthly BLS releases, and any signs of financial system stress in bank earnings throughout 2025. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections at the March 19 and June 18, 2025 FOMC meetings will reveal policymaker expectations for the 2026 rate path. Real-time recession indicators like the Sahm Rule triggering (unemployment rising 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low) or three consecutive months of negative nonfarm payroll prints would dramatically shift probabilities, though even then, nine cuts represents an extreme tail scenario.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Has the Federal Reserve ever implemented nine rate cuts in a single calendar year?
No—the Fed’s most aggressive easing year was 2001 with eleven cuts, but the closest modern comparison is seven cuts in 2008 during the financial crisis, making nine cuts extremely rare even during severe downturns.
What unemployment rate would typically trigger nine Fed rate cuts in one year?
Historical precedent suggests unemployment would need to surge past 7% with accelerating momentum, coupled with deflation risks—significantly worse than typical recession levels of 5-6% unemployment that trigger standard easing cycles.
Could the Fed execute nine cuts even if it wanted to without hitting the zero lower bound?
Starting from approximately 4.25-4.50% in early 2025, nine 25-basis-point cuts would bring rates to roughly 2%, leaving some room above zero, though such a path would signal expectations of depression-level economic conditions.