This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 25, 2026
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Odds: 73.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The market strongly favors 2026 producing a monthly temperature record at 73.5%, reflecting scientific expectations that El Niño/La Niña cycles combined with long-term warming trends make new records increasingly likely. This matters because monthly temperature records have accelerated dramatically—2024 saw 12 consecutive months break records from June 2023 to May 2024, establishing a pattern that suggests the baseline has shifted significantly upward.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 73.5% | 26.5% | $99K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case rests on robust climate data showing that nine of the ten hottest years have occurred since 2010, and the post-2023 El Niño warming pulse continues affecting global temperatures into 2025-2026. NOAA and other meteorological agencies will release their 2026 outlook forecasts in December 2025, which historically show increasing probability of record temperatures. The compound effect of rising baseline temperatures means each year has approximately a 1-in-12 chance per month under current trends, making the cumulative annual probability mathematically favorable. Even a weak El Niño phase developing in late 2025 or early 2026 would substantially boost odds, as these events typically produce temperature spikes 3-6 months after formation.
The bear case centers on the possibility of a strong La Niña pattern emerging in 2025-2026, which typically suppresses global average temperatures by 0.2-0.5°C. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues ENSO forecasts quarterly, with the next significant update due in November 2024 covering early 2025 conditions. If La Niña conditions strengthen through mid-2025, the cooling effect could prevent any individual month in 2026 from exceeding records set during the powerful 2023-2024 El Niño. Additionally, volcanic aerosol effects from potential eruptions or unusual atmospheric circulation patterns could temporarily depress temperatures, though such events are unpredictable.
Traders should monitor NOAA’s monthly Global Climate Reports (released around the 15th of each following month) and the Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO forecasts updated at mid-month. The February 2025 ENSO outlook will be particularly crucial for understanding mid-2026 conditions. Watch for preliminary 2025 temperature data released in January 2026, as a cooling trend in late 2025 would significantly impact 2026 probabilities. The market resolves based on official datasets from NOAA, NASA, or other recognized agencies, typically finalized 2-3 weeks after month-end.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Which months in 2026 are most likely to break records based on historical patterns?
July and August traditionally see the highest absolute temperatures globally and have broken records most frequently in recent years. However, months following El Niño peaks (typically March-May) often show the largest anomalies relative to baseline averages.
How much does the current 2024-2025 El Niño cycle affect 2026’s chances?
El Niño’s warming effects typically lag 3-6 months, so a strong El Niño ending in mid-2025 would still influence early 2026 temperatures. Conversely, if La Niña develops by late 2025, its cooling effect would peak during mid-to-late 2026.
What happens if different meteorological agencies disagree on whether a record was set?
The market resolution depends on the specific data source defined in the rules (typically NOAA NCEI or NASA GISTEMP). Minor variations between agencies exist due to methodology, but they rarely disagree on whether monthly records occurred during the satellite era.