This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 21, 2026
Will Brandon Miller lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Will Brandon Miller lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season? Odds: 0.1% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Brandon Miller Three-Pointer Leader Market Analysis
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.1% | 99.9% | $10K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
At 0.1% implied probability, this market reflects the consensus view that Brandon Miller has virtually no realistic path to leading the league in made threes during 2025–26, though the extremely compressed odds create potential value for contrarian bettors. The market matters now because we’re still in the 2024–25 season, giving traders 7+ months to reassess Miller’s trajectory before the outcome resolves in April 2026.
The bull case hinges on Miller’s demonstrated three-point volume and efficiency improvements. The Charlotte Hornets’ young wing shot 36.6% from three as a rookie (2023–24) and has maintained solid accuracy in 2024–25, currently ranking among Charlotte’s primary three-point shooters. If Miller significantly increases his attempts—moving from roughly 4-5 per game to 6-7+—while maintaining 36%+ efficiency, he could plausibly reach 250+ made threes, the threshold typically needed to lead the league. A favorable Hornets roster construction, fewer injuries to established high-volume three-point shooters elsewhere in the league, or Miller becoming the focal point of Charlotte’s offense would accelerate this scenario.
The bear case is substantially more compelling. Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Luka Doncic, and other established shot-takers have logged 200+ made threes in recent seasons with minimal competition. Miller would need to not only increase volume dramatically but also overcome players with deeper offensive roles and higher usage rates who already exceed his three-point attempts per game by significant margins. At 21–22 years old, Miller remains a secondary option on the Hornets and hasn’t shown signs of becoming the primary ball-handler needed for such high-volume shooting. Additionally, injuries to Miller or further roster changes in Charlotte could derail any upside scenario entirely.
Key catalysts to monitor include the Hornets’ summer 2025 free agency decisions and any trades that might elevate Miller’s role, his three-point volume trends through the 2024–25 regular season (compare quarterly shooting attempts), and injury reports for established three-point leaders heading into 2025–26. The bet is essentially a “world-class shot creation outlier” play that requires not just statistical improvement but a fundamental shift in how Miller is used offensively—something with less than 1% historical probability.
Related Markets
- Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? — 0% YES
- Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? — 1% YES
- Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? — 6% YES
Frequently Asked Questions
What three-point volume would Miller realistically need to lead the league?
He’d need to attempt roughly 7-8+ threes per game while maintaining 35%+ accuracy to reach the 250+ made threshold; he currently attempts around 4-5 per game.
How does Miller’s role compare to established three-point leaders like Curry or Lillard?
Miller is a secondary scoring option on Charlotte with limited ball-handling duties, whereas league leaders operate in primary offensive roles with significantly higher shot attempts and offensive usage rates.
Could a major Hornets roster trade in summer 2025 meaningfully change this market’s outcome?
Yes—a trade sending Miller to a perimeter-heavy team needing shot creation or acquiring an elite playmaker who feeds him open looks would be the primary catalyst to reshape his probability upward.