This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on April 8, 2026
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? Odds: 36.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this ma...
This market tracking Lee Zeldin’s potential appointment as Attorney General currently prices in roughly one-in-three odds that Trump will make this announcement within the next two and a half years, reflecting both Zeldin’s GOP credentials and the uncertainty inherent in personnel decisions this far from the deadline.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 36.5% | 63.5% | $100K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case rests on Zeldin’s established relationship with Trump and his profile as a former New York congressman who challenged the Democratic establishment in the 2022 gubernatorial race. Zeldin has proven loyalty to Trump’s political brand, voted against certifying the 2020 election results, and represents the kind of combative conservative prosecutor Trump historically favors for the Justice Department. His New York roots could appeal to Trump’s desire to place allies in positions to challenge prosecutions emanating from that state. Additionally, Trump’s first-term pattern of announcing key cabinet positions relatively early in his administration suggests a decision could come well before the June 2026 deadline if he wins reelection in 2024.
The bear case centers on competition from other Trump-aligned lawyers and the significant time remaining for political circumstances to shift. Zeldin lacks prosecutorial experience compared to candidates like Jeff Landry or other state attorneys general who have actively litigated conservative causes. Trump’s history of cycling through attorney general candidates—from Jeff Sessions to Matthew Whitaker to William Barr—demonstrates his difficulty finding someone who balances legal credibility with personal loyalty. The 2024 election outcome itself remains the primary variable; if Trump loses, this market resolves to zero. Even if Trump wins, his second-term cabinet could prioritize candidates with deeper DOJ or federal prosecution backgrounds.
Key catalysts include the November 2024 presidential election and any subsequent transition announcements between November 2024 and January 2025, when cabinet positions typically get revealed. Traders should monitor Zeldin’s public alignment with Trump throughout the campaign, any expansion of his legal credentials or advisory roles, and Trump’s rhetoric about Justice Department priorities. Competition signals—such as other candidates being floated in conservative media or meeting with Trump—would indicate weakening odds for Zeldin specifically.
Related Markets
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — 18% YES
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 4% YES
- Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? — 5% YES
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this market resolve YES if Trump nominates Zeldin but the Senate rejects the nomination?
Yes, the market only requires Trump to announce Zeldin as his choice for Attorney General by the deadline, regardless of Senate confirmation outcomes.
What happens to this market if Trump doesn’t win the 2024 presidential election?
The market would effectively resolve NO, since Trump would have no authority to appoint an Attorney General without winning the presidency and taking office in January 2025.
Could an acting or interim Attorney General appointment count toward resolving this market?
Yes, if Trump formally announces Zeldin as Attorney General in any capacity—including acting AG—before June 30, 2026, the announcement requirement would be satisfied.