This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 29, 2026
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Odds: 0.2% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
This market essentially prices François Asselineau as having virtually no chance of winning France’s 2027 presidential election, reflecting his marginal position in French politics despite leading the UPR (Union Populaire Républicaine) party that advocates for France’s withdrawal from the EU and NATO. The near-zero probability matters as a baseline for measuring how far-right and sovereigntist movements might gain traction as the election approaches.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.2% | 99.8% | $984K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bear case is overwhelming: Asselineau received just 0.92% in the 2017 presidential election and didn’t qualify for 2022 after failing to secure the required 500 mayor endorsements. His party remains organizationally weak with no parliamentary representation, no elected mayors in significant cities, and minimal media presence compared to established figures like Marine Le Pen or Éric Zemmour who already occupy the Eurosceptic space. Current polling for 2027 consistently shows a rematch scenario between Macron’s successor (potentially Gabriel Attal or Édouard Philippe), Marine Le Pen, and left-wing candidates, with no visibility for Asselineau.
The bull case requires an extraordinary political realignment where mainstream Euroscepticism collapses and Asselineau emerges as the sole credible “Frexit” candidate. This could theoretically occur if both Le Pen’s National Rally and Reconquête implode due to scandals or if a major EU crisis—such as another sovereign debt emergency or CAP agricultural policy collapse—radically shifts French sentiment toward hard EU withdrawal advocacy. He would still need to secure 500 endorsements by March 2027, build name recognition from current single-digit awareness, and consolidate the anti-EU vote.
Key catalysts include the mayor endorsement collection period (beginning roughly February 2027), any UPR performance in the 2026 regional elections that might signal unexpected grassroots strength, and major EU policy decisions in 2025-2026 that could inflame sovereigntist sentiment. Traders should monitor whether Asselineau secures ballot access and whether polling shows any movement above 2-3% threshold by late 2026, which would still leave him far from victory but might justify odds above the current floor.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Asselineau’s probability so much lower than other Eurosceptic candidates like Le Pen or Zemmour?
Asselineau lacks both institutional infrastructure (no MPs, no significant local elected officials) and media legitimacy, while Le Pen commands 30%+ polling support with an established party apparatus and Zemmour maintained 7% in 2022 with significant media backing.
What would need to happen for Asselineau to even qualify for the ballot in 2027?
He must collect 500 sponsorship signatures from elected officials (mayors, MPs, regional councillors) by the March 2027 deadline, which he failed to achieve in 2022 and barely accomplished in 2017 due to his party’s lack of local political relationships.
Could a major Frexit movement before 2027 change his chances significantly?
Even a major pro-Frexit shift would more likely benefit Le Pen’s established National Rally party, which already advocates EU reform and has the infrastructure to capitalize on such sentiment, rather than elevating an unknown figure like Asselineau from sub-1% support.