This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 22, 2026
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season? Odds: 0.1% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Ja Morant’s 2025-26 Scoring Title: An Extreme Longshot with Minimal Catalyst
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.1% | 99.9% | $10K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The 0.1% odds reflect a near-consensus dismissal of Morant’s chances, yet this probability appears mathematically defensible rather than irrational—he would need to average roughly 27+ points per game in a season where Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remain active competitors. The market’s skepticism is anchored in three structural disadvantages: Morant has never led the league in scoring during his career, the Grizzlies employ a depth-based system that deliberately spreads offensive load (Desmond Bane and Brandon Clarke are consistent scoring options), and Morant’s injury history—including last season’s shoulder issues and multiple past suspensions—creates durability risk that scoring-title contenders cannot afford. For context, the 2024-25 season saw SGA lead at roughly 30.1 PPG; Morant finished outside the top-10 scoring leaders.
The bull case hinges on Morant entering a “prove-it” year where he assumes aggressive offensive responsibility, particularly if Jaren Jackson Jr. remains sidelined. If Memphis pivots to a perimeter-centric attack following the offseason, Morant could theoretically reach 25-26 PPG—a career high would still likely fall short against the league’s elite scorers. The 2025-26 season begins in October 2025, giving scouts three months to monitor his conditioning and shooting efficiency during preseason. Any early-season indicators of elevated usage rate (above 28%) combined with improved three-point volume could marginally shift this to 0.3-0.5%, though even this would remain a 200-to-1 underdog proposition. Injuries to Doncic or SGA midseason represent the only realistic black-swan scenario that moves the needle meaningfully.
The bear case is overwhelming: Morant has averaged 20-23 PPG throughout his healthy seasons, never demonstrating the sustained elite-level volume scoring required for a league lead. The Grizzlies’ playoff ambitions depend on defensive intensity and ball movement, which conflict with the isolation-heavy approach necessary for a scoring title race. Additionally, any ankle re-injury (his chronic weak point) would likely eliminate him from contention entirely. Traders should monitor the Grizzlies’ roster moves through the 2025 draft and free agency—if Memphis adds a third scoring option or extends their depth rotation, Morant’s odds should contract further, potentially reaching 0.05%.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Has Ja Morant ever finished in the top-5 for NBA scoring in a single season?
No. His career-high scoring average is approximately 27.2 PPG (2021-22), which ranked outside the top-5 that season; he has never led the league in scoring and rarely finishes in the top-10.
What injury history could realistically prevent Morant from competing for a scoring title in 2025-26?
Ankle sprains (recurring), shoulder injuries, and knee issues have sidelined him multiple times; even a minor 10-15 game absence would virtually eliminate his chances against full-season competitors with 70+ games played.
How does Memphis’ roster construction specifically limit Morant’s scoring opportunity compared to league-leading scorers?
The Grizzlies’ system emphasizes pace-and-space with distributed scoring among Desmond Bane,