This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on May 9, 2026
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? Odds: 0.1% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The Polymarket odds place an exceptionally low probability on Kim Jong Un being deposed or leaving power before 2027, reflecting North Korea’s tightly controlled authoritarian system and the absence of any visible succession mechanisms or internal challenges to his rule.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.1% | 100.0% | $99K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bear case for Kim remaining in power is overwhelming. North Korea’s political structure eliminates virtually all pathways for leadership change short of natural death or catastrophic internal collapse. Kim has systematically purged potential rivals, including executing his uncle Jang Song-thaek in 2013 and allegedly ordering the assassination of his half-brother Kim Jong-nam in 2017. The military, party apparatus, and security services remain under his consolidated control. His relatively young age (born 1984) makes health-related succession unlikely in this timeframe. No intelligence reports suggest organized opposition movements, and the country’s information isolation prevents the kind of popular uprisings seen elsewhere.
The bull case relies on low-probability, high-impact scenarios. Kim’s health remains opaque—he disappeared from public view for weeks in 2020, sparking succession rumors, and South Korean intelligence has periodically noted weight fluctuations suggesting potential health issues. A military coup, while historically rare in hereditary communist regimes, cannot be entirely discounted given economic pressures from sanctions and COVID-19 border closures through 2023. External intervention remains theoretically possible if North Korea’s nuclear program or weapons transfers (such as recent reported cooperation with Russia on munitions) trigger a regional crisis. Some analysts have noted his sister Kim Yo-jong’s elevated profile, though she appears to function as deputy rather than rival.
Key events to monitor include North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly sessions (typically held in April and September), which occasionally reveal leadership dynamics through attendance and appointments. Kim’s public appearance frequency and physical condition during state media broadcasts provide limited but important signals. Any unusual military movements near Pyongyang, extended absences from expected appearances during national holidays like April 15 (Day of the Sun), or sudden changes in state media tone would warrant attention. The geopolitical calendar matters too: escalation around U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises (spring and summer annually) or developments in Russia-North Korea cooperation could create destabilizing pressures.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What would constitute Kim Jong Un being “out” for this market to resolve YES?
This would require Kim’s confirmed removal from supreme leadership through death, coup, exile, or formal replacement—not merely a temporary absence from public view or delegation of specific duties to family members.
Why did Kim Yo-jong’s rising prominence not increase these odds?
Her elevated role appears to strengthen rather than threaten Kim’s rule, functioning as a trusted extension of his authority rather than an alternative power center, and North Korea’s system has shown no precedent for sibling-based succession challenges.
How would traders know about a leadership change given North Korea’s information controls?
Major leadership transitions cannot be concealed indefinitely—North Korea announced Kim Jong-il’s death within 48 hours in 2011, and South Korean/U.S. intelligence agencies maintain surveillance capabilities that would detect significant regime changes even if initially suppressed in state media.