This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 22, 2026
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26? Odds: 99.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The Polymarket odds heavily favor the Toronto Raptors clearing 39.5 wins in the 2025-26 season, pricing in near-certainty despite the team’s current rebuilding status and recent struggles—a positioning that matters for bettors evaluating whether this line offers any value before the April 2026 resolution.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 99.5% | 0.5% | $98K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bull case rests on the Raptors’ young core development and potential roster improvements. Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett represent legitimate building blocks, and Toronto historically maintains competitive organizational standards under Masai Ujiri. The franchise has missed the playoffs two consecutive seasons but hasn’t posted a sub-.500 record since 2012-13. With 40 wins requiring roughly a .488 winning percentage over an 82-game season, the Raptors would need only modest improvement from their 2024-25 trajectory. The 2025 NBA Draft (June 2025) and free agency period (July 2025) provide clear catalysts where Toronto could add impact talent through the lottery or veteran acquisitions.
The bear case centers on the Eastern Conference’s competitive depth and Toronto’s uncertain direction. The team traded Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, signaling a rebuild rather than immediate competitiveness. Barrett and Barnes, while promising, haven’t proven they can anchor a 40-win team as primary options. The Raptors’ 2024-25 season has them on pace for their worst record in over a decade, suggesting the 39.5 line might underestimate rebuilding timelines. Organizations often require 2-3 years to translate draft assets into playoff contention, and the condensed timeline to April 2026 may not provide sufficient runway.
Key watchpoints include the May 2025 NBA Draft Lottery results, which determine Toronto’s draft position and potential franchise-altering prospect access, and the July 2025 free agency period where front office strategy becomes clear. The opening month of the 2025-26 season (October-November 2025) will establish whether roster changes translate to wins, while the February 2026 trade deadline represents a final inflection point for teams to pivot toward tanking or competing. The 99.5% probability leaves virtually no margin for skepticism about a historically modest win total.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why is this market categorized under politics when it’s clearly a sports outcome?
This appears to be a miscategorization error, as NBA regular season win totals have no political component. The market should be classified under sports betting.
What happens if the 2025-26 NBA season is shortened due to labor disputes or other disruptions?
The win total would likely be adjusted proportionally to maintain the same winning percentage threshold, though specific resolution criteria should be verified in the market’s detailed rules before the season begins.
Does the Raptors’ current 2024-25 performance provide reliable signals for next season’s win total?
Current season struggles may actually create value in the “under” position if Toronto commits to tanking for 2025 draft position, as organizational incentives and roster construction can shift dramatically between seasons during rebuilds.