This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on May 28, 2026
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? Odds: 8.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
This market prices just an 8.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will drop to a severely restricted 10-20 daily transits by May 2026, reflecting traders’ view that a major disruption scenario remains unlikely despite the region’s chronic instability. The question matters because the Strait handles roughly 21 million barrels of oil daily—about 21% of global petroleum consumption—and any sustained reduction to these levels would signal either military conflict, a blockade, or catastrophic regional escalation with immediate global economic consequences.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8.5% | 91.5% | $98K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bear case for higher odds centers on Iran’s evolving nuclear program and the potential for direct U.S.-Iran military confrontation. Israel’s ongoing security operations and potential strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities could trigger Iranian retaliation by mining or missile attacks on tanker traffic. The U.S. has periodic naval standoffs with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in these waters, and any incident involving American vessels could escalate rapidly. Additionally, Yemen’s Houthi forces have demonstrated willingness to attack shipping in the Red Sea, and similar tactics applied to the Strait could quickly reduce traffic to this constrained range. A formal Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites or assassination of senior IRGC officials would be clear catalysts.
The bull case for lower odds (meaning normal traffic continues) emphasizes that even during peak tensions, the Strait has never experienced sustained closures at these levels. Both Iran and Gulf states have strong economic incentives to keep traffic flowing—Iran itself relies on the Strait for its own exports. The U.S. Fifth Fleet maintains constant presence specifically to ensure freedom of navigation. Historical precedent shows that even during the 1980s “Tanker War,” traffic was disrupted but not reduced to 10-20 transits daily. Insurance costs might spike during crises, but ships continue moving. Current transit levels typically exceed 40 vessels daily, meaning a drop to this range would require an unprecedented event, not merely heightened rhetoric.
Traders should monitor several specific indicators: IAEA reports on Iran’s uranium enrichment levels (currently at 60%, approaching weapons-grade 90%), which could trigger Israeli military action; U.S. Central Command statements on Iranian naval harassment incidents; and oil futures markets, where Brent crude spikes above $100/barrel would suggest traders pricing in serious supply disruption risk. The next IAEA Board of Governors meeting in March 2025 and any subsequent resolutions could set the stage for escalation. Watch also for Iranian domestic politics as the government faces internal pressure that sometimes manifests in external aggression.
Related Markets
- Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 1% YES
- Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — 1% YES
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? — 3% YES
Frequently Asked Questions
What daily transit volume is considered normal for the Strait of Hormuz, and how drastic would this 10-20 range be?
Normal traffic averages 35-50 transits daily carrying crude oil and liquefied natural gas. A sustained drop to 10-20 would represent a 50-60% reduction indicating active warfare, blockade, or mining operations.
Could Iran actually close the Strait of Hormuz if it chose to, or is this militarily unfeasible?
Iran could temporarily disrupt traffic through mines, anti-ship missiles, or small boat swarms, but sustaining a closure against U.S. naval response would be extremely difficult. Most experts believe Iran could create chaos for days or weeks, not months, and such action would devastate Iran’s own economy.
Why does the market specify May 31, 2026 specifically as the measurement date?
This appears to be an arbitrary far-future date allowing traders to bet on medium-term geopolitical risk rather than imminent crisis. The single-day snapshot means even a brief but severe escalation occurring exactly on that date would resolve YES, though random timing makes this unlikely.