This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on March 31, 2026
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season? Odds: 0.3% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
The market gives Trae Young virtually no chance to lead the NBA in assists next season, reflecting serious skepticism about his ability to reclaim the league’s playmaking crown he last held in 2021-22.
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.3% | 99.7% | $100K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The bear case—which explains the near-zero odds—centers on Atlanta’s recent roster turbulence and Young’s declining assist numbers. After averaging 10.8 assists when he won the title in 2021-22, Young dropped to 10.2 in 2023-24 and has hovered around 9.4 through the current 2024-25 season. The Hawks’ midseason trade of Dejounte Murray eliminated a secondary ball-handler but hasn’t revived Young’s assist production to elite levels. More critically, Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver’s Nikola Jokić have emerged as dominant playmakers, with Jokić averaging over 10 assists while maintaining MVP-caliber overall play. Young would need to dramatically increase his usage and the Hawks would need to construct a roster specifically designed to maximize his assist opportunities—something that seems unlikely given their rebuilding trajectory.
The bull case requires believing in a perfect storm scenario: Atlanta surrounds Young with elite finishers and runs every possession through him, similar to Chris Paul’s peak Phoenix years. Young has demonstrated 11+ assist per game capability when given complete offensive control. If the Hawks commit to a Young-centric rebuild by the 2025 offseason, acquire high-percentage shooters and rim runners, and Young returns to 35+ minutes per game with enhanced playmaking responsibilities, the raw talent exists. His vision and passing creativity remain elite—he just needs the supporting infrastructure and team commitment that currently doesn’t exist.
Critical dates to monitor include the 2025 NBA Draft (June 25, 2025) where Atlanta holds potentially valuable picks that could reshape their roster philosophy, and the July 2025 free agency period when the Hawks must decide whether to build around Young or pivot entirely. Any trade rumors involving Young before the February 2026 deadline would effectively kill this market, as would Atlanta acquiring another primary ball-handler. The first month of the 2025-26 season (October-November 2026) will immediately reveal whether the Hawks have committed to a high-assist system that could give Young a legitimate path.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Has Trae Young ever led the NBA in assists before?
Yes, Young led the league in total assists in 2021-22 with 737 (10.2 per game), demonstrating he has the capability to reach the league’s assist summit under the right circumstances.
Who are the main competitors likely preventing Young from leading in assists for 2025-26?
Nikola Jokić, Tyrese Haliburton, and Luka Dončić represent the primary threats, with each averaging 9-11+ assists this season and playing on teams built around their playmaking, while emerging talents like Cade Cunningham could also compete for the title.
What roster moves would Atlanta need to make for Young to have a realistic shot at the assists title?
The Hawks would need to acquire multiple high-efficiency finishers—specifically elite three-point shooters and a lob-threat center—while eliminating other ball-dominant guards and committing to a system where Young handles the ball on 90%+ of possessions.