This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on April 6, 2026
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March? Odds: 0.1% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Inflation Market Analysis
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0.1% | 99.9% | $97K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low probability that annual inflation will increase by exactly 2.2% in March, suggesting traders believe either deflation or inflation above that threshold is far more likely given current economic conditions. This tight specification matters because it isolates a precise inflation target rather than a range, making the outcome highly sensitive to how the Bureau of Labor Statistics rounds or reports year-over-year CPI changes. With the expiry date of April 10, 2026, traders have roughly a year to assess whether the Fed’s policy trajectory will land inflation at this exact point.
The bull case relies on the Fed successfully engineering a soft landing where inflation gradually converges toward the 2% target without triggering a recession. If the FOMC maintains rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range through 2025 and inflation continues its measured decline from current levels, annual headline CPI could plausibly settle near 2.2% by March 2026. The February and March 2026 CPI releases—due mid-March and mid-April respectively—will be critical, as will any PCE deflator readings that might suggest core inflation is cooling faster than expected. A series of softer-than-expected jobs reports (NFP data released monthly on the first Friday) or weakness in producer prices could accelerate disinflation and push the market higher.
The bear case—reflected in the 0.1% odds—argues that 2.2% is an improbably narrow band. Inflation could undershoot this level if demand weakens sharply, supply chains remain persistently loose, or the Fed cuts rates too aggressively in 2025, potentially triggering renewed disinflation. Conversely, sticky wage growth, energy price shocks, or geopolitical disruptions could keep inflation above 2.2%. The January 2026 CPI report and December 2025 PCE data will be the first major catalysts traders watch; if those readings show inflation stalled above or below the threshold, the probability will need substantial repricing. Any surprise FOMC decision or shift in forward guidance could also compress or widen the implied inflation range traders expect.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why is this market priced at 0.1% when 2.2% is close to the Fed’s 2% target?
The specificity of 2.2% makes it a narrow band—inflation could easily land at 1.8%, 2.4%, or 2.5%, all of which would resolve this market as NO. Traders are essentially betting that inflation will miss this exact point by at least ±0.2%.
Which single economic release matters most for this market?
The March 2026 year-over-year headline CPI print (released mid-April) is the decisive catalyst, as it directly determines the outcome; the February 2026 CPI will signal which direction the trend is moving.
Could this market move significantly before March 2026 even arrives?
Yes—a string of CPI readings in late 2025 that show inflation trending clearly above or below 2.2% would cause repricing well before the resolution month, as traders update their probability of hitting that exact band.