This market has settled: RESOLVED
Settled on April 4, 2026
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30? Odds: 9.5% YES on Polymarket. See live prices and trade this market.
Strait of Hormuz Transit Market Analysis
Current Odds
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 9.5% | 90.5% | $10K | Trade on Polymarket |
Market Analysis
This market is currently pricing in a roughly 1-in-10 probability of sustained elevated shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by April 2026, which reflects deep skepticism that geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf will remain acute enough to drive 60+ daily transits over a sustained period. The question hinges on whether current regional instability—primarily US-Iran tensions, Houthi attacks on shipping, and potential Israeli-Iranian escalation—persists or de-escalates significantly over the next 18 months. Hormuz transits typically average 20-25 vessels daily during normal periods, meaning this threshold requires either a major supply disruption forcing rerouting inefficiencies or a dramatic surge in regional military activity creating bottlenecks.
The bull case rests on several plausible escalation scenarios. A direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel—whether triggered by continued Houthi operations, Lebanese Hezbollah activity, or nuclear program tensions—could force commercial shipping to cluster near safer corridors, reducing throughput or creating insurance-driven delays that inflate transit counts. Additionally, new US sanctions targeting Iranian oil could paradoxically increase transits if refineries shift to cheaper spot-market purchases requiring more frequent, smaller shipments. The 2024-2025 period will be critical: any Israeli retaliation for Iranian attacks, JCPOA renegotiation attempts under a new US administration, or major Houthi escalations could sustain the current risk premium through April 2026. Current Houthi targeting has caused some rerouting but hasn’t fundamentally broken the Hormuz route’s dominance for Gulf oil exports.
The bear case dominates current pricing for solid reasons. Historical data shows Hormuz traffic returns to baseline (25-30 transits/day) within 6-12 months of most geopolitical shocks, as shipping economics eventually override risk premiums. A negotiated settlement—whether a US-Iran deal, Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire reducing regional tensions, or Houthi de-escalation through military pressure—would normalize traffic well below the 60-transit threshold. The 14+ month runway to expiry provides ample time for diplomatic off-ramps that markets routinely underprice. Additionally, alternative routing around Africa, while slower and more expensive, becomes cost-justified if Hormuz risks remain elevated, which would actually reduce Hormuz transits rather than increase them.
Key catalysts to monitor: US presidential transitions (particularly regarding Iran policy), any major Israeli-Iranian military exchange (watch for drone/missile strikes, which have historically spiked in early months of escalation cycles), quarterly shipping data releases showing actual transit volumes, and OPEC+ production decisions that influence demand pressure. Traders should track Houthi attack frequency (monthly data available), crude oil price movements (which affect rerouting economics), and insurance premiums for Hormuz passage. The market’s 9.5% probability appears consistent with a “black swan scenario” bet—traders are essentially pricing in roughly 10% odds that 18 months of geopolitical stability fails to materialize, a reasonable probability for one of the world’s most volatile regions.
Related Markets
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — 4% YES
- Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? — 5% YES
- Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? — 6% YES
Frequently Asked Questions
What shipping volume would actually constitute “60 or more average daily transits” given normal Hormuz traffic is 20-25 vessels?
The threshold requires either a 2.5-3x multiplication of typical traffic (suggesting severe bottlenecking from military closures forcing rerouting) or sustained inefficiencies from insurance/documentation delays during active hostilities. Normal supply disruptions rarely produce this without actual choke